By Ishita Aryan

The world recently witnessed the warmest January on record, underscoring the urgent need for climate action. Against this backdrop, 2024 also happens to be the mega year for elections around the globe where 40% of the world’s population will vote. The ongoing elections in India, home to the world’s largest democratic process, hold significant sway over domestic and global climate policy. The demands and decisions made by millions of Indian voters will significantly shape the future governments commitments and policy on GHG reduction and climate adaptation. Thus, the fate of climate change and politics gets deeply intertwined.

India faces a myriad of climate hazards, with the World Bank identifying it as the country with the highest climate-exposed population. From extreme heat and water scarcity to floods and cyclones, the impacts are felt across life, livelihoods, food security and economic productivity. As the world crossed the 1.5° Celsius warming threshold for the first time in 2023, India found itself amidst several heat waves. According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), over 9 million people in India are already suffering from the adverse effects of climate change. Between 2016- 2021, climate extreme events caused damage to crops in over 36 million hectares, and a $3.75 billion loss for farmers in the country. If estimates from the report on ‘Loss and Damage Today’ by economist James Rising were to be believed, India lost 8% of its GDP in 2022. Further, if projections from the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) are to be stated, India has a risk of losing 35% of GDP to climate change by 2100.

At the moment, millions of Indians are heading to cast their votes in scorching heat waves. Despite these stark realities, climate action has yet to dominate the electoral agenda. One might question why climate consciousness isn’t at the forefront of political discourse. On the other side India’s voters deeply resonate with the climate crisis since the majority of Indian voters have had first-hand experience of the adverse effects of climate change. According to Yale’s Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research (CVoter), India’s voters can be differentiated into 4 brackets: the Alarmed (54%) and the Concerned (29%) as the large majority, the Cautious, and the Disengaged forming the minor tail groups. This is quite indicative of the fact that India already has a climate consensus majority voters. According to the World Risk Poll, every three in five Indian voters perceive climate change as a threat to their country in the next 20 years. The question then arises: Can climate action agendas take the centre stage in India’s political dynamics to sway voters’ decisions? Are they powerful enough to change mandates and voters’ preferences?

The climatisation of Indian politics has come a long way in the last two decades, from existing at the peripheries, to becoming an eminent frame of reference for mediation and hierarchisation of national and international issues. It has transverse from being a mere mention in a single paragraph in the 1999 general election manifestos, to today where the biggest political parties aim to weave green policies, renewable energy, and pollution-free cities into their mandates. India has once again pitched itself as a climate leader of the global south at the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) as well as during the G20 presidency. However, the climate issue has failed to strike a strong resonance in the current election campaigns. Political analysis of the 2024 general elections manifestos from India’s two of the biggest parties does not reflect the specifics, depth, and tangible commitments for climate action. Not to refute the argument that political manifestos are often considered as statements of intentions and not policy documents.

For instance, both major parties touch upon key climate issues such as greenhouse gas reduction, air pollution, climate adaptation, resource circularity, and nature recovery. However, the parties could have further provided tangible climate action targets, funding commitments and pathbreaking implementation ideas. The key nexus of climate crisis with cities, urban heat island effects, impacts on food security, poverty, loss of livelihood and productivity and public health missed to even get a mention in both manifestos. Further, the current political manifestos present a voice informed by those at the top, and not by the ones on the frontlines of the crisis. To gain a more nuanced understanding, it’s important to closely compare & contrast some common themes and analogy of climate politics in the 2024 election manifestos.

The ruling party’s 69-page election manifesto dedicated three pages to environment and climate issues under the section “Modi Ki Guarantee for Sustainable Bharat”. These highlight Lifestyle for Environment (LIFE) initiative, river cleaning mission on Namami Gange, and rigorous solar expansion as major milestones to sway the voters, along with new promises on cleaner air in cities, etc. The opposition party has also brought in some forward-looking approaches under the chapter such as setting up of a Green Transition Fund for enabling net zero commitments and establishing an independent Environment Protection and Climate Change Authority to establish and enforce the National and State Climate Change plans. The ruling party has a foot ahead of the opposition party for stating its commitment to leading the efforts for forming and leading unconventional global climate alliances for the collective good of climate fragile countries in the Global South. International Solar Alliance, Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, One Future Alliance, Global Biofuels Alliance, and Big Cat Alliance are some of the celebrated names.

Net zero alignment:  India now draws 44% of its electricity from non- fossil fuel sources such as solar power but must showcase a continuous commitment to reaching its net zero goals. The ruling party’s manifesto emphasises their work on the five nectar elements of ‘Panchamrit’ in GHG emission reduction, presented in COP26 in Glasgow. They aim to continue the Green Credit Programme by expanding the scope of activities to fulfil decarbonisation requirements. The opposition party, on the other hand, promises to accelerate transition finance by setting-up a Green New Deal Investment Programme focused on solar power to the left-behind rural areas and the agricultural sector.

Air pollution: At this moment, 83 of the world’s 100 most polluted cities are in India, with New Delhi standing as the world’s most polluted capital city. Both parties have been vocal about the issue. The ruling party’s agenda highlights their initiative on the National Clean Air Program framework, which they now promise to convert into a Mission for the 102 most polluted cities in the country and achieve National Air Quality Standards in 60 Cities by 2029. The opposition party also aims to strengthen the National Clean Air Programme but lacks detailed plans on implementation and timelines.

Climate adaptation and resilience: There is no introduction required for the devastating heat, floods, landslide, droughts that India currently faces, which is only expected to increase further with time on account of climate change. The ruling party states their twin agenda for enhancing resilience for coastal and Himalayan ecosystems. They propose building reservoirs to prevent flash floods in hilly terrains, which have seen the annual rage of floods, landslides, and glacial lake outbursts. On the other hand, the opposition party also aims to appoint a high-level committee to study landslides in hill districts and evolve prevention measures. They also promise to increase allocation to the National Adaptation Fund and review guidelines for its use.

Resource circularity: Both parties emphasise objectives on water and resource circularity. The ruling party emphasises institutionalising recycling mandates across the states under the National E-waste Management Mission. The opposition party made a bold commitment to installing desalination plants in all coastal areas and promoting water harvesting and recycling. However, as India’s tech hub Bangalore and many other parched cities are reeling from the water crisis, both parties missed presenting innovative, indigenous, and phased strategies to avoid the water crisis.

Nature recovery: India remains one of the top countries when it comes to nature loss and biodiversity depletion. As per the 2021 State of the India’s Environment report by CSE, over 90% of the area under the biodiversity hotspots have been lost. The ruling party aims to promote afforestation and agroforestry such as the Green Aravalli Project, eco-tourism, protection of tribal communities, natural farming methods, biodiversity conservation for coastal and Himalayan states through instruments such as the Green Credit Programme. The opposition party also touches upon some of these main agendas including environment protection, forest conservation, biodiversity preservation, coastal zone regulation, and protection of tribal rights. However, both parties missed setting tangible milestones or proposing ground-breaking pathways for the implementation.

As per a recent survey published from Deloitte, for around 1.8 crore young Indians voting for the first time, climate change is the third most important societal issue. It’s time that voters must demand more than just rhetoric from their leaders, pushing for a hyper local narrative of climate politics and policies, and concrete actions for the same that safeguard the environment and promote resilience. The impacts of climate change manifests to different lived experiences for different communities, depending on the current socio- economics, development challenges or systemic oppression and, as an ecosystem.

It’s high time that India’s politics and politicians start paying heed to these many-to-many linkages of climate change and economic development. So far, not a single political party has emphasised on key junctions of climate action and its potential to create 30-32 million green jobs by 2050 in India. Finally, although the manifesto for this election has been finalised, there is still much that voters, as responsible citizens, can do by demanding climate sensitive action plans from the chosen party leaders. Only by prioritising climate concerns can India truly fulfil its resilient economic development and secure a better future for the current and future generations to come.

The author is Climate Policy Specialist | Arcadis UK; Masters in Public Policy, Majors in Climate Policy | London School of Economics.

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