India, I believe, needs and deserves change. Ten years ago, there was a clamour for change, and the change of government took place from UPA to NDA. I think India is at such a moment again. There is much that has happened in the last 10 years that must be reversed or remedial action taken…

I ended last week’s column with the words “As the election rolled through the seven phases, the battle was joined between those determined to protect the status quo and those determined to disrupt the status quo.” Counting of votes is two days away, and we will know whether the plurality (or majority) of the people desire change or are happy to maintain the status quo.

Comfort in status quo

There are certainly many people who desire change but I think there are also many people who do not want change. I suppose it is because the no-changers fear change may make their lives worse; or because the unknown is more frightening than the known; or because they fear that change in one aspect will affect other aspects of life — for example, breaking custom may invite the community’s wrath. There is a certain comfort in the status quo.

The last thirty years of India have been marked by certain periods where the motive force was change. During certain other periods, it was protecting the status quo. At other times, it was atavism, which the dictionary defines as a ‘tendency of reversion’. (Atavists are those who long for what they see as a lost and glorious past.)

India, I believe, needs and deserves change. Ten years ago, there was a clamour for change, and the change of government took place from UPA to NDA. I think India is at such a moment again. There is much that has happened in the last 10 years that must be reversed or remedial action taken. Let me give you a few examples:

The sufferers

Demonetisation in 2016 was a Himalayan mistake. The huge hole in liquidity caused an upheaval in the lives of individuals as well as in the working of hundreds of thousands of micro and small units. Many units did not recover and shut down.

The subsequent unplanned lockdowns during the pandemic years (2020 and 2021) made the situation worse. Absence of a financial package and credit aggravated the situation for micro and small units. More units shut down and, as a result of the twin blows, hundreds of thousands of jobs were lost. Changing the dire situation requires a bold plan that will include debt waiver, massive credit, government purchases, export incentives and tax concessions. I have not heard of any plan in this behalf from the no-changers.

The silent blows to reservation have scuttled the Constitutional promises to SC, ST and OBC.

Leaving 30 lakh jobs in the government and government sector vacant was criminal neglect and an example of the anti-reservation attitude. While swearing by the 50% cap on reservation, the status quoists quietly slipped in a 10% quota for economically weaker sections (EWS), over and above the 50%, but excluded the EWS among the SC, ST and OBC, why? The policy of reservation has been severely undermined by the net reduction of jobs in public sector enterprises, privatisation without conditions on reservation, preference to the private sector over the government in education and healthcare, cancellation of public examinations citing leaks of question papers, non-promotion, and contractualisation and casualisation of jobs. Change will come only at the instance of those who challenge the status quo.

Reversing the damage

The weaponisation of laws deserves to be reversed. How will a Parliament dominated by no-changers reverse the draconian new Bills or Amendment Bills that were passed in the last 10 years? Who will rein in the investigation agencies and bring them under the oversight of Parliament/Legislature committees? Who will restore the meaning and content of Articles 19, 21 and 22 of the Constitution and re-establish the rule of law? Who will end ‘bulldozer justice’ and ‘pre-trial incarceration’? Who will remove fear of the law among the people and replace it by respect for the law? Who will make ‘due process’ an immutable principle of criminal law and incorporate in the law the principle that ‘bail is the rule, jail is the exception’? These changes can be made only by a band of intrepid lawmakers who are committed to the fundamental values and principles of the Constitution crafted by Babasaheb Ambedkar.

Liberalisation, an open economy, competition and world trade have brought great improvement to the Indian economy but will continue to be relevant only if the economic policies are re-set. The growth rate has flagged, as it was bound to happen, because of creeping controls, disguised licensing, growing monopolies, protectionism, and fear of bilateral and multi-lateral trade agreements. The bias toward capital at the cost of labour (we have a PLI but not an ELI) has suppressed employment and wages — one of the causes of growing inequality. According to World Inequality Lab, India’s inequality is at its highest level since 1922.

Many people are deceived by the rise in median income. Remember, below the median are 50% of the Indian people (71 crore) and within that are the bottom 20% (28 crore) who are even poorer. Will the status quoists speak for the bottom 20 per cent? Look at another data point: the adult population of India (15-64 years) is 92 crore but only 60 crore are in the labour force. The most liberal estimates of the labour force participation rates (LFPR) are 74% (men) and 49% (women). Combine unsatisfactory LFPR, high unemployment rates and an ageing population, the inevitable conclusion is we are fast losing the advantages of demography. Who will dare to challenge the current economic policies and re-set them? Not the status quoists.

Disruption alone will bring change. Disruption, and change, will bring many benefits and some losses that can be corrected. The cardinal lesson of 1991 is who dares wins. The status quoists — no changers — have not learned and will not learn that lesson.