India’s solar manufacturing pack is entering a phase where expansion alone is not enough, according to JM Financial Ltd. Institutional Securities Iit has initiated coverage on key listed players with sharply different calls. The brokerage assigns a ‘Buy’ buy rating only to Emmvee Photovoltaic Power with a 31% upside, while Waaree Energies and Premier Energies have beennrated y ‘Reduce’
The report jots down a sectoral blueprint that has seen rapid capacity build-up, with more than 100 players and over 170 gigawatt of manufacturing capacity already in place.
Against the expected module demand of 45 to 50 gigawatt annually up to 2030, JM Financial points to rising competition, pricing pressure and the risk of technology obsolescence
JM Financial on Emmvee Photovoltaic Power: ‘Buy’
JM Financial sets a target price of Rs 291 for Emmvee Photovoltaic Power, with a ‘Buy’ rating indicating an upside of 31% from current levels The brokerage expects cell and module production to reach 4.7 gigawatt and 7.9 gigawatt by FY28.
Between FY25 to FY28, revenue, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, and profit after tax are projected to grow at compounded rates of 83%, 77% and 87%. Margins are seen peaking at 33% in FY26 before moderating to around 27% to 28% by FY28 as competition builds.
JM Financial values the company at 7.5 times FY28 enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, supported by its technology positioning and integration capability.
“Most experienced integrated player with high re-rating potential,” JM Financial says in its report.
JM Financial on Waaree Energies: ‘Reduce’
JM Financial assigns a target price of Rs 2,815 to Waaree Energies, implying a downside of 10% from current levels.
The brokerage house expects revenue, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, and profit after tax to grow at compounded rates of 34%, 42% and 40% over FY26 to FY28, reaching Rs 35,100 crore, Rs 7,800 crore and Rs 5,200 crore respectively. Even with this growth, margins per watt are expected to peak in FY26 and then decline due to increasing competition and pricing pressure.
The company’s net cash of Rs 6,800 crore at the end of FY25 supports expansion across modules, cells, ingots and wafers, but diversification into newer segments introduces execution risks that cap upside at current valuations.
“Despite healthy growth prospects, we believe current valuations adequately reflect its scale advantages and expansion visibility while incremental risks from aggressive diversification and capital deployment limit near-term upside,” JM Financial says.
JM Financial on Premier Energies: ‘Reduce’
JM Financial assigns a target price of Rs 865 to Premier Energies, indicating a downside of 10%.
The brokerage expects module production to scale up to 8.2 gigawatt and cell production to 6.6 gigawatt by FY28.
Revenue, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation and profit after tax are projected to reach Rs 16,400 crore, Rs 3,900 crore and Rs 2,300 crore, growing at compounded rates of 36%, 29% and 35% over FY26 to FY28.
Margins are expected to peak at 29% in FY26 before moderating to 24% by FY28 as competition intensifies. The company is valued at 10 times FY28 enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, with JM Financial noting that growth is already priced in at current levels.
“We expect PEL to sustain growth momentum led by continued expansion, deeper integration and an order book of Rs 1,37,000 crore,” JM Financial says.
| Company | Rating | Target Price (₹) | Upside/Downside | Key Strength | Key Risk |
| Emmvee Photovoltaic Power | Buy | 291 | 0.31 | Strong technology, integration | Margin moderation |
| Waaree Energies | Reduce | 2,815 | -10% | Scale, expansion | Pricing pressure, diversification risk |
| Premier Energies | Reduce | 865 | -10% | Strong order book | Valuation, margin decline |
Emmvee vs Premier Energies vs Waaree
JM Financial’s assessment of these three companies rests on how each approaches integration, technology and capital deployment.
Waaree Energies remains the largest player, expanding towards 28 gigawatt module capacity, 15.4 gigawatt cell capacity and upstream integration into ingots and wafers by FY28.
Premier Energies is also pushing deeper into integration with plans across the value chain including TOPCon cell and ingot wafer facilities.
Emmvee, though smaller in scale, is positioned differently with a strong technology base and early adoption of advanced modules.
The brokerage’s numbers show a divergence in returns. Emmvee’s return on equity stands at 105% in FY25 and is expected to normalise to 29% by FY28. Waaree Energies sees return on equity move from 28% to 25%, while Premier Energies is projected to move from 54% to 31% over the same period.
“Companies that successfully combine scale, vertical integration, export competitiveness, sustained research and development investment and strong balance sheet will be rewarded,” JM Financial says.
The broader sector context also plays a role in these ratings. JM Financial notes that about 40% of existing manufacturing capacity could become obsolete due to the transition to newer technologies such as TOPCon modules. At the same time, the industry is moving from a phase of volume growth up to FY26 towards margin expansion through integration between FY27 and FY29.
“Currently, the crowded Indian solar industry can be classified under three baskets,” the report says, placing Waaree and Premier among large integrated players and Emmvee among technology focused domestic players.
Conclusion
JM Financial’s coverage brings out a sector where growth remains strong but valuation comfort is limited for several players.
Waaree Energies and Premier Energies continue to show strong expansion and earnings growth, yet their ratings reflect concerns around pricing pressure, execution risks and limited upside at current levels.
As capacity rises and competition intensifies, the brokerage’s stance suggests that companies with stronger integration and technology capabilities are better placed to sustain returns over the coming years.
Disclaimer: The investment details and target prices mentioned are based on a report by JM Financial Institutional Securities and are for informational purposes only. This coverage does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Investors should note that the solar sector is subject to technological obsolescence and regulatory changes; therefore, it is advised to consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any financial decisions.
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