Gold seems to be taking a breather. Or, is the big rally in gold over?

Gold price has gained 40% in the last 1 year and over 27% so far in 2025. But over the last month, the gold price has remained in a narrow range, trading around $3,350 per ounce.

Gold price today in India is Rs 97,570, also trading in a tight range over the last few weeks.

Motilal Oswal Wealth Management (MOWM) is calling it quits as far as the gold bull run is concerned. In a report titled, ‘Gold bull run: We call it quits’, MOWM says the risk premium from geopolitical tensions has eased, especially among Israel-Iran and Russia-Ukraine relations. Also, the trade-related uncertainties are subsiding as tariff disputes calm down.

Optimism over trade developments has actually reduced the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

Interest rates have an inverse relationship with the gold price. MOWM believes that expectations of rate cuts are delayed, which otherwise could have lifted prices further. Lastly, the report highlights that central banks continue to buy gold, though the overall quantity has decreased significantly.

MOWM is of the view that signs of market fatigue are also emerging at these higher levels, and for gold prices to advance further, the market now requires fresh, significant catalysts. Historical data over the past 25 years shows that Comex gold has never achieved more than 32% returns in a single year, says the Motilal Oswal report.

Motilal Oswal Wealth Management has a clear plan to navigate the path ahead for investing in gold.
“At this stage, we need to wait for more clarity or a decisive trigger, so a period of consolidation may be appropriate. Should any longer-term triggers emerge, we would consider re-entering to continue our successful run. Tactical traders holding long positions may consider hedging or exiting on sustained close below Rs.96,000.”

Although gold has doubled in less than 30 months, there has not yet been a gold price crash. A crash in gold price is not looking likely due to ongoing weakness in the US dollar amid fiscal concerns and expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

Currently, as market experts say, the gold is in a consolidation phase. A move towards $3,000 will raise red flags for gold investors, while a decline below $3,300 will be a level to watch out for.