Private weather forecaster Skymet on Tuesday projected a ‘normal’ southwest monsoon season (June-September), with the cumulative rainfall of 103% of the benchmark long period average (LPA), boosting the hope of robust kharif crop.
The agency has seen are around 80% change of monsoon rains to be in the range of ‘excess’ to ‘normal’ this season. The forecast comes with a model error of +/- 5%.
However, the season is expected to commence with relatiivey less rains with pick-up during the second half of the four-month period (June-September). In terms of monthly distribution of rainfall, Skymet in its forecast stated that the rainfall is likely to be 96% (June), 102% (July), 108% (August) and 104% (September) of the benchmark respectively.
If the prediction by the Skymet and other foreign agencies hold true, it will be the second consecutive year of normal monsoon rains for the country in 2025, after a below-normal precipitation seen in 2023. Last year, Skymet had predicted monsoon rainfall to be 102% of the benchmark, while actual precipitation was higher at 108% of LPA.
Rainfall in the range of 96-104% of LPA is considered “normal” and 105-110% ‘above normal’. The LPA is the average rainfall received during 1971-2020 at 86 centimetres. During the June-September period, the country receives about 70 to 75% of the country’s annual precipitation, and a normal monsoon boosts crop prospects as well as water reservoirs levels.
The government has set a target of a record foodgrain production of 341.55 million tonne (MT) in the 2024-25 crop year (July-June), which is an increase of around 3% from 2023-24 crop year on account of above normal monsoon rainfall last year.
“The vital signs of La Nina have started fading now. The occurrence of El Nino, which normally corrupts the monsoon, is ruled out,” Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet, said in a statement.
The agency stated that a preliminary forecast of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will work in tandem with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for better monsoon prospects. “Historically, ENSO-neutral coupled with positive IOD tended to produce a worthy monsoon,” according to Skymet.
According to Skymet, the monsoon may have a quiet start on account of a quick transition from La Nina to El-Nino neutral and gain enough pace half-way through the season.
“A blended forecast from UK Met Office, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts suggest average to above-average monsoon rainfall in India,” Akshay Deoras, research scientist, National Centre for Atmosphere Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom, had earlier told FE.
Meanwhile, the country’s official weather forecaster India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to release the first prediction for the monsoon season soon.
Recently, IMD had stated there are 75% chances of a transition of El Niño-southern oscillation to ‘neutral’ position during April 2025 and is favored to persist through the end of this year, boosting prospects of normal monsoon this year
The southwest monsoon after onset over Kerala coast in early June covers the entire country by July. The monsoon rains start gradually receding from the north region from the middle of September.