The delay in the monsoon has resulted in a cumulative shortfall of 24% in rainfall so far, but while giving its second estimate, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its forecast only marginally.

In its first forecast in April, the met department had stated that rains during the June-September season was likely to be 99% of the Long Period Average (LPA). LPA is calculated on the basis of an average annual rainfall received during 1951-2000, at 89 cm. On Friday, this was marginally downgraded to 96%, and the IMD predicted widespread rains during July and August. The met department said the rains during July-August is likely to be 98% & 96% of LPA respectively. If this happens, agricultural growth won?t be affected much, more so given around 40% of crop area is irrigated ? the fact that the storage levels in 84 key reservoirs is around 67% of last year?s levels, however, is worrying.

According to a Citigroup research note, the impact of a poor monsoon could shave off 40-80 bps from India?s likely GDP growth of 6.4% for FY13. More worrying, however, is the met department said ?there is also substantial probability (about 36%) for emergence of weak El Nino conditions during later part of the monsoon season?. In which case, the kharif crop could get affected, though the good news is the share of the rabi crop has risen compared to in the past.

In 2011, the rainfall for the season (June-September) was 101% of LPA. Last year, out of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, 33 subdivisions constituting 92% of the total area in the country had received excess or normal season rainfall and only 8% of the area received deficient rainfall in 2011, an IMD report said.

?The rains have picked up pace in the last few weeks and we stand by our prediction of a ?normal?monsoon,? Shailesh Nayak, secretary, ministry of earth sciences, told FE. ?The monsoon takes a different path and there is no deviation in the climatological path of monsoon this year,? he said. The forecast by the IMD comes at a time when concerns are being raised at various levels about the deficient rainfall, which is expected to impact kharif sowing.

Monsoon is crucial for agriculture as about 40% of the cultivable area is under irrigation. ?Delay by a few days would not impact the kharif crop plantation,? an agriculture ministry official said.

As per the ministry of agriculture data, more than 5.2 million hectare (mh) under sugarcane has been sown till now against 4.9 mh in the corresponding period of 2011-12. Oilseeds have been sown in 1.72 lakh hectares so far. Due to adequate monsoon rainfall during 2010 and 2011, grains production rose to an all-time record of 245 million tonne and 252.56 mt, respectively.

?The monsoon has rapidly advanced mainly along the west coast and over northeastern states and has covered entire Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Goa, southern parts of Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura and parts of sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim,? the IMD said.

?Heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and coastal Karnataka during the next 48 hours,? IMD has said.