Amid continuing suspense over the fate of the Hemant Soren-led government in Jharkhand, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) on Tuesday shifted its MLAs to a resort in Congress-ruled Chhattisgarh amid fears of poaching by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). A total of 32 MLAs of the UPA were flown to Raipur from Ranchi on Tuesday before being dropped at the Mayfair Lake Resort, some 11 km from the state’s capital.

The 32 MLAs, including 18 from Congress, are expected to stay put at the lake resort till September 4. While more MLAs are expected to arrive today, Some ministers may fly back to Ranchi for a cabinet meeting called by CM Soren on September 1.

Ready to face any situation: CM Soren

Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren said on Tuesday that the government is ready to face any challenge thrown to them by the Opposition BJP.  “We are ready to face every situation and we are preparing a strategy to tackle it. You have seen a glimpse of that strategy earlier and are witnessing it now as well. The ruling dispensation will give a solid reply to the conspirators in the state,” Soren told reporters outside Ranchi airport where he was present to see off the UPA MLAs to Raipur.

Panic over ‘secret letter’

As UPA MLAs were being ferried to Congress-governed Chhattisgarh, AICC general secretary in charge of Jharkhand Avinash Pandey said that the situation had been created due to the “secret letter” written by the Election Commission to the Jharkhand Governor that has “created panic”. It has been reported that the EC has recommended Soren’s disqualification from the Jharkhand Assembly. The EC sent its advice after the Governor sought the poll panel’s views on the matter.

Why is Soren facing disqualification?

Jharkhand Governor Ramesh Bais had sought the opinion of the Election Commission of India following a complaint by leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party seeking Soren’s disqualification as an MLA for violating electoral law by extending a mining lease to himself. The BJP has alleged that Soren misused his position as the mining and forest minister of the state by allotting himself a stone mining lease.

According to The Indian Express, the EC, in its communication to the Governor dated August 25, recommended Soren’s disqualification as MLA under Section 9A of the Representation of People Act, which prohibits elected representatives from entering into any contract with the government for “supply of goods” or “execution of any works undertaken” by it.

‘Fuelling horse-trading?’: UPA fumes over Governor’s silence

The three UPA partners — JMM, Congress and RJD — have questioned the Governor’s silence on the matter days after the EC’s reported letter to the Raj Bhavan recommending his disqualification. In a joint statement issued on August 29, the three parties said the Governor’s silence was leading to attempts of horse-trading by the BJP. The Congress even went ahead and termed the Governor’s silence as a conspiracy.  

Also Read| Sealed envelope holds key to Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren’s fate: What are the options before him?

“Does Raj Bhavan want to fuel horsetrading by buying time (in making the decision public)? … We have seen how the dignity of the post of Governor was degraded in Maharashtra and other states. This is unfortunate,” the UPA MLAs said in the statement.
UPA fears Maharashtra repeat, taking no chances

The Governor’s silence and the measures by the UPA to “protect” its MLAs are in line with their fears of a repeat in Jharkhand of what happened in Maharashtra a few months ago. Uddhav Thackeray, who faced a rebellion within his own party, had to step down as Chief Minister and make way for rebel Shiv Sena faction leader Eknath Shinde to take over. The Shinde faction had allied with the BJP to prove a majority and form a government in the state. The matter is currently pending in Supreme Court.

UPA leaders from Jharkhand admit they fear a repeat of Maharashtra in the state, though they maintain they are ready for any eventuality. Democracy and the people in this state are being disrespected. The environment we see in the country, like horse trading of MLAs we saw in Maharashtra… the same is happening in Jharkhand. Our coalition is strong,” JMM MLA and state minister Champai Soren said at a press conference in Ranchi on Monday. 

Jharkhand Assembly: How do the numbers stack up?

In the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly, the JMM has 30 MLAs, Congress has 18, and the RJD has one legislator. The BJP has 26 MLAs and though the numbers may appear stacked against the saffron party, the Maharashtra example is fresh in everyone’s minds and the UPA is unwilling to take any chances.

Also Read: Trouble mounts for Hemant Soren: EC writes to Governor proposing CM Hemant Soren’s disqualification from Jharkhand Assembly

What next for Hemant Soren?

All eyes are on the Governor for what action he initiates against Soren if the reports of the EC recommending Soren’s disqualification hold true. The Governor has the option to disqualify him as an MLA as well as bar him from contesting elections. In either case, Soren will have to step down as CM and win an election in the next six months to return to the chair, unless he is barred from contesting elections. 

Soren, in the second case, may opt to offer the chair to someone from his family—wife Kalpana, father Shibu Soren or mother Rupi Soren—as a stopgap measure till he tries to upend the challenge through judicial intervention. The crisis stems from the fact that all these circumstances would require the UPA MLAs to remain united and back their leader, a fragility that the BJP may want to exploit.