India experienced its hottest October since 1901, with the average temperature hitting 26.92 degrees Celsius — that’s 1.23 degrees above the normal October average, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). And it looks like November might not bring much relief either.
IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra explained that the warmer weather was largely due to the absence of cooling western disturbances and the unusual presence of easterly winds, caused by active low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal.
“In north-western India, north-westerly winds are needed for lower temperatures. The monsoonal flow was also there that does not allow fall in temperature,” Mohapatra said.
The minimum temperatures also rose above normal, with the average reading reaching 21.85 degrees Celsius instead of the usual 20.01 degrees. In the coming two weeks, northwestern plains can expect to stay about 2-5 degrees warmer than average, but a gradual cooling trend should begin soon afterward.
Although November isn’t technically considered a winter month, Mohapatra said hints of cooler weather usually start in December, with January and February bringing the coldest days of winter.
Southern region to receive heavy rains
In the southern regions, the northeast monsoon is expected to bring heavy rains this November, especially in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and Karnataka. Northwestern India, however, could see less-than-average rainfall.
The delay in the arrival of cold weather might be due to neutral El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with predictions showing that La Nina could gradually take over by December. La Nina often leads to stronger cold winds from the Hindu Kush, which can make Indian winters chillier.
Global forecasting on El Nino hasn’t been straightforward this year, but IMD remains optimistic about a shift toward cooler temperatures by December as La Nina strengthens.