The 7th and final phase of Lok Sabha elections will conclude on June 1, bringing an end to the months-long poll season in the largest democracy in the world. Right after the polling concludes in the last phase, the focus will shift to the exit poll predictions released by several political research agencies.

Exit polls, a post-election survey, are predictions based on voter feedback collected by survey agencies after they cast their votes. The idea behind the exit polls is to reflect public sentiment and electoral trends before the actual results are announced.

These predictions give important insights into the trends and likely outcomes before the official results are declared. This year, the election results will be announced on June 4.

As anticipation builds and all eyes are set on the exit polls, let’s have a look at how accurate exit poll predictions have been in the past.

Exit polls in 2019

  1. India Today-Axis My India exit poll had predicted the NDA would win 339 to 365 seats and the UPA 77 to 108.
  2. News24-Today’s Chanakya – They said that the NDA would win about 350 seats (give or take 14) while the UPA – 95 (give or take 9).
  3. News18-IPSOS predicted 336 seats for the NDA in the 2019 polls. Their survey projected 82 seats for UPA and 124 seats for other parties.
  4. Times Now-VMR: According to them, the NDA was projected to win around 306 seats while the UPA was to win 132 seats (with a margin of error of 3 for all projections).
  5. India TV-CNX: Their survey estimated 300 seats (plus or minus 10 seats) for the NDA and 120 seats (plus or minus 5) for the UPA.
  6. CVoter: 287 for NDA, 128 for the UPA and the remaining seats for other parties.

Of these exit polls, India Today-Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya were the most accurate since they had predicted over 350 seats for NDA and just 93-95 for UPA. On the other end of the table, Times Now-VMR had predicted just around 306 seats for NDA and nearly 130 for UPA, place the BJP-led NDA in a precarious situation.

Actual results in 2019

After the counting of votes was done and the results were declared, the NDA went on to win 353 seats in Lok Sabha while UPA bagged only 91. Of this, the BJP won 303 seats and the Congress got 52. While the exit polls accurately predicted that NDA would surpass 300 seats and retain power, most underestimated the actual number of seats it won.

Exit polls in 2014

In 2014, most of the exit polls were accurate in predicting the pulse of the nation and gave the BJP-led NDA an edge over the Congress-led UPA. The BJP got the absolute majority on its own by winning 282 seats. In 2009, the highest prediction for the UPA was 205 but it ended up winning 262 seats. Something similar happened in 2004 when all the exit polls went horribly wrong. All the exit polls predicted a win for NDA but it lost the election to the UPA.

CNN-IBN – CSDS–Lokniti: NDA – 276, UPA-97, Others-148
India Today – Axis My India: NDA-272, UPA-115, Others- 156
News 24 – Today’s Chanakya: NDA-340, UPA-70, Others-133
Times Now – ORG: NDA-249, UPA-148, Others- 146
ABP News – Nielsen: NDA-274, UPA-97, Others-165
NDTV – Hansa Research: NDA-279, UPA-103, Others-161

Actual Results in 2014

NDA-336, UPA-66, Others-147
BJP-282, Congress-44

Assembly election exit polls in 2023

The exit polls for Assembly elections in 2023 in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana and Chhattisgarh, came on expected lines for some states like Telangana, while the mandate for other states like Chhattisgarh was off the mark.

Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections

In Madhya Pradesh, while Dainik Bhaskar had predicted 95 to 115 seats for the BJP and 105 to 120 seats for the Congress, India Today-Axis My India had said the saffron party would get 140 to 162 seats and the Congress between 68 and 90.

India TV-CNX had also predicted a landslide victory for the BJP, pegging the number of seats at 140 to 159 and 70 to 89 for the Congress. Today’s Chanakya had predicted that the BJP would get up to 163 seats while the Congress’s tally would be between 62 and 86. Republic TV-Matrize had given 118 to 130 seats to the saffron party and 97 to 107 seats to the Congress.

After the results were declared, the saffron party remained at the helm of affairs with a two-thirds majority and 163 seats in the House. The Congress secured a meager 66 seats.

Chhattisgarh Assembly elections

For Chhattisgarh, while ABP News-C Voter had predicted 41 to 53 seats for the Congress and 36 to 48 seats for the BJP in the 90-member House, India Today-Axis My India had forecast 40 to 50 seats for the Congress and 36 to 46 seats for the BJP.

India TV-CNX had forecast 46 to 56 seats for the Congress and 30 to 40 seats for the BJP.

News 24-Today’s Chanakya predicted that the Congress would secure a clear majority with 57 seats (plus-minus eight) while the BJP would get 33 seats (plus-minus eight).

However, most of the predictions were completely off the mark. Defying all pollsters and predictions, the BJP won an absolute majority with 54 seats, wresting power from the INC, which had won a landslide in 2018 but could win only 35 seats. This was also the BJP’s biggest win in Chhattisgarh.

Rajasthan Assembly elections

In Rajasthan, India Today-Axis My India had hinted at a tight race, predicting 86 to 106 seats for the Congress, 80 to 100 seats for the BJP and nine to 18 seats for others.

While Dainik Bhaskar had given 98 to 105 seats to the BJP and 85 to 95 seats to the Congress, Jan Ki Baat had forecast that the saffron party would get 100 to 122 seats and the Congress between 62 and 85.

Today’s Chanakya gave a simple majority to the Congress, projecting that it would get 101 seats as against the BJP’s tally of 89. While India TV-CNX had put the Congress’s tally at 94 to 104 in the 200-member Rajasthan Assembly and the BJP’s at 80 to 90, Republic TV-Matrize had given 115 to 130 seats to the saffron party and 65 to 75 seats to the Congress.

Even though several research agencies predicted a tough fight between BJP and Congress in Rajasthan, where INC was the then ruling party, The BJP wrested power by winning 115 seats, unseating the Indian National Congress from power who won just 70 seats.

Telangana Assembly elections

For Telangana, while India TV-CNX had forecast 63 to 79 seats for the Congress, 31 to 47 seats for the BRS, two to four seats for the BJP and five to seven seats for the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), Jan Ki Baat had forecast that the Congress would get 48 to 64 seats, the BRS would get 40 to 55 seats, the BJP would get seven to 13 seats and the AIMIM between four and seven seats.

Republic TV-Matrize had predicted that the Congress would get 58 to 68 seats in Telangana, the BRS would get 46 to 56 seats, the BJP four to nine seats and the AIMIM five to seven seats. TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat had said the Congress would get 49 to 59 seats, the BRS 48 to 58, the BJP five to 10 and the AIMIM six to eight.

Meanwhile, News 24-Today’s Chanakya had predicted a clear victory for the Congress, giving the party 71 seats against 33 of the BRS and seven of the BJP.

The votes were counted and the results were declared on December 3, 2023. The Indian National Congress (INC) along with its ally Communist Party of India (CPI) won a majority with 65 seats against the incumbent Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS)’s 39 seats.