US university enrollment figures have been greatly impacted by the crackdown on international students, which includes limitations on visa issuance. According to a recent survey, there may be a considerable drop in the number of new international students enrolling in the US in September.
According to NAFSA and JB International’s estimates, international student commencements in the US could drop by 30% to 40% for the important fall intake in September.
For the 2025–2026 academic year, this would result in a 15% decrease in the number of international students enrolled in the United States, which would be equivalent to a loss of 1,50,000 students over the previous year.
F-1 visa issuance decreased by 12% between January and April 2025 (compared to the same period the year before), with a 22% decline in May alone, according to Department of State data.
According to the NAFSA/JBI research, the economic impact of the reduction is $7 billion, with over 60,000 jobs affected across the United States. According to NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw, this is “one of the most significant drops in international enrolment in recent times.”
“The immediate economic losses projected here are just the tip of the iceberg. International students drive innovation, advance America’s global competitiveness, and create research and academic opportunities in our local colleges that will benefit our country for generations. For the United States to succeed in the global economy, we must keep our doors open to students from around the world,” Fanta added.
Why are US enrolments falling
NAFSA and JB International’s analysis identifies four important variables that are driving the expected reduction for the upcoming academic year.
They include the suspension of visa interviews from May 27 to June 18, limited visa appointment availability once interviews resumed in late June, a reduction in visa issuance numbers through the first half of 2025, and the US administration’s travel ban.
NAFSA noted that based on field reports and US universities, the visa appointments are limited in a number of significant student markets, including India, China, Nigeria, and Japan.
F-1 visa issuance
Meanwhile, Department of State figures show that F-1 visa issuance fell by 12% from January to April 2025 (compared to the same time the previous year), with a 22% drop in May alone.
“The last few days of May were also the kick-off of a visa processing pause for students. That visa pause continued through the third week of June, but even after that, we’re not sure exactly when full interviews picked back up, as the State Department was still sorting out its vetting process.
So we might be looking at as much as an 80-90% decline in visa issuance for June,” says JB International CEO Jason Baumgartner.