The Trump administration’s immigration policies are going to have a profound impact on the US economy. The Trump administration’s policies on illegal and legal immigration would decrease GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth, also referred to as economic growth, by almost one-third, from a projected average annual rate of 1.8% to a 1.3% average annual rate between FY 2025 through FY 2035, says a report from The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP).
The Trump administration’s controversial immigration policies are expected to decrease economic growth, increase federal debt, and decrease the supply of productive labor in the U.S. economy.
According to an analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy, the Trump administration’s policies on illegal and legal immigration would reduce the projected number of workers in the United States by 6.8 million by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035 and lower the annual rate of economic growth by almost one-third, harming U.S. living standards.
The 11 million projected fewer workers in 2035 and 4 million fewer workers in 2028 due to the Trump administration’s policies represent a reduction from the labor force numbers that Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assumed in its January 2025 forecast.
This is the first analysis to project the short-term and long-term impact of the Trump administration’s policies on both illegal and legal immigration.
Due to fewer workers in the labor force, the Trump administration’s immigration policies would lead to a potential labor loss to the U.S. economy of approximately 19 million worker years by 2028 and 102 million worker years by 2035, according to the analysis.
The policies would reduce the projected cumulative goods and services produced (GDP) in America by $1.9 trillion, or $5,612 per person, from 2025 to 2028, and by $12.1 trillion, or $34,369 per person, from 2025 to 2035. The policies would also substantially increase the federal debt. The U.S. GDP is over $30 trillion in 2025.
Of the 6.8 million fewer projected workers in the U.S. labor force in 2028, 2.8 million would be due to changes in legal immigration policies, and 4 million would result from policies on illegal immigration.
The reductions in legal immigration include the travel ban enacted in 2025, prohibiting international students from working on Optional Practical Training and STEM OPT after completing coursework and other changes, such as an expected public charge rule, to restrict legal immigration.
The combination of the Trump administration’s policies on illegal and legal immigration would increase the total federal debt held by the public by $252 billion by 2028 (in 2025 dollars) and by $1.74 trillion (or $1.42 trillion in 2025 dollars) between 2025 and 2035. The rise in debt does not include billions of dollars in increased federal spending on border and immigration enforcement, says the report.