Quick commerce players Blinkit and Instamart are unlikely to show any meaningful improvement in their April–June quarter losses, despite growth in revenue, analysts said. While gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenues are expected to surge year-on-year, investments in scaling operations, particularly dark store expansion, will continue to weigh on their profitability.
According to analysts, the bulk of infrastructure-related investments for both companies peaked in the fourth quarter of FY25. However, expenses are not expected to decline enough in the April-June quarter to reflect in narrowed losses. Fixed costs, especially those associated with a larger store network, remain elevated.
Kotak Institutional Equities estimates Blinkit’s GMV to grow 124% and revenue to increase 113% year-on-year in the April-June quarter. This growth will be primarily led by high store additions and throughput ramp-up, which continue to keep fixed costs high. “We expect Blinkit to report contribution margin of 3.2% as a percentage of GMV, a minor 10 basis point improvement from 3.1% reported in Q4,” Kotak said. It expects adjusted Ebitda losses to remain around Rs 180 crore, nearly unchanged from the previous quarter.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services has pegged Blinkit’s contribution margin at 3%, suggesting little movement in operational profitability.
Instamart is also expected to post healthy top-line growth, with GMV likely rising 113% year-on-year, driven again by large-scale store additions. “Large store additions should also drive a proportionate increase in fixed costs, resulting in an adjusted Ebitda loss of Rs 850 crore, similar to the loss of Rs 840 crore reported in Q4,” Kotak said.
An analyst tracking the sector said that profitability improvements will take another two to three quarters as a substantial portion of the dark stores reach maturity. “Each dark store typically takes 8–9 months to mature. Many stores across Blinkit and Instamart will hit that point in Q3 and Q4,” the analyst said.
Despite the muted bottom-line trajectory, both platforms are expanding their market share. As per the estimates by ICICI Securities Blinkit grew more than 25% quarter-on-quarter and Instamart over 22%, compared with the overall sector growth of under 20%. This outperformance could put pressure on rivals like Zepto, BBNow, and Flipkart Minutes, all of whom have been scaling up investments to stay competitive.