The domestic telecom industry is undergoing a structural shift, with growth being driven by rising data consumption and higher-value services rather than subscriber additions, analysts said.
Mobile subscriber growth slowed to its weakest pace this year in July, with the industry adding just about half a million new wireless users compared with an average 2–3 million in the preceding months.
This sharp deceleration, analysts said, implies that the market for fresh connections could be reaching saturation, particularly in rural areas where all operators reported subscriber losses during the month.
Jio. Airtel leads in active number users
According to data released by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) for July, Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel each added 0.5 million subscribers, while Vodafone Idea lost 0.4 million and BSNL shed 0.1 million. However, active user additions — a better gauge of paying customers — were healthier, with Jio adding 2 million and Airtel 0.8 million, even as Vi and BSNL saw further declines. Jio’s active subscriber ratio climbed to a record 97.7%, inching closer to Airtel’s 99.3%.
Mobile broadband subscriptions rose by 4.2 million in July, led by Airtel’s 2.6 million additions and Jio’s 0.8 million. Fixed wireless access and fibre-to-the-home services also saw robust momentum as Jio added 0.93 million home broadband subscribers — fuelled by its JioAirFiber roll-out — while Airtel added 0.35 million, its strongest performance in months. By the end of July, Jio’s fixed broadband base expanded to around 21 million, nearly double of Airtel’s 11.5 million.
Additionally, all three telcos are seeing steady spike in per capita data consumption, with Jio’s touching 40GB per month.
“Muted wireless net adds in July highlight that the next leg of growth will have to come from data monetisation rather than raw subscriber gains,” analysts from Kotak Institutional Equities noted.
Telecom industry focus shift from growth to monetisation
With over 1.16 billion total mobile connections and more than 80% data penetration, the industry has little headroom left to chase new customers. Instead, monetisation opportunities now lie in 5G adoption, fixed wireless access for households and small businesses, and bundled digital content offerings.
“Jio continued to register robust home broadband additions of 0.93 million in July, driven by its aggressive push of JioAirFiber,” JM Financial analysts said, adding that Airtel too is seeing steady gains.
Persistent churn remains a feature, with mobile number portability requests touching 15.4 million in July — an all-time high — signalling intense competition among operators. “The market construct will remain favourable for the top two players, aided by tariff repair and rising Arpu (average revenue per user),” Kotak analysts said.
The July data could be indicative that India’s telecom story is no longer about connecting the unconnected. Rather, the focus has shifted to deepening engagement with existing users—driving more data per subscriber and scaling broadband services.