By Anthony Bell
Since the collapse of the USSR in the early 90s, the issue of relations between Moscow and New Delhi has been raised at almost every conference, seminar or expert meeting dedicated to Russian-Indian relations. Often the prevailing opinions of participants in such meetings are pessimistic or even alarmist. It is argued that Russia has already lost India or, in any case, may lose it in the near future unless decisive measures are taken urgently. Such pessimism and alarmism are, in general, not surprising: experts, unlike politicians, are usually more focused on problems and challenges than on achievements and opportunities.
Indeed, on many important Eurasian and global issues – from Ukraine to Afghanistan, from the Belt and Road Initiative to the Indo-Pacific concept – the positions of Moscow and Delhi do not coincide, which sometimes leads to wariness and creates risks for the mutual trust that has always been a solid foundation for bilateral relations.
However, the active dissemination in the Indian media of publications from the Anglo-Saxon press (magazines Politico, Foreign Affairs, etc.) that India intends to “curtail all relations with Russia,” including in the military sphere, does not correspond to the real state of affairs. Over the past decades, despite domestic political changes and radical changes on the global stage, traditionally friendly Russian-Indian ties have invariably strengthened. They are based on a high degree of mutual understanding and trust, similarity of priorities for economic and social development, coincidence of approaches to ensuring universal peace and security, to the formation of a new architecture of the world order. The Russian Federation and India are consistently realizing the potential of bilateral cooperation in all key areas, with an emphasis on expanding industrial cooperation, trade and investment.
In the field of military-technical cooperation, for example, which has always been considered one of the main areas of bilateral relations, a period of certain trials has begun. Indeed, over the past five years, Russia’s share of the Indian arms market has fallen from 60% to 45% as New Delhi has committed itself to diversifying military products. At the same time, the Russian Federation and India continue to maintain interest in further interaction in this area. At the same time, Moscow is acting in accordance with New Delhi’s strategy to create high-tech military products as part of the “Make in India” concept, and also pays special attention to sensitive issues for the Indian side about the reliability of Russian weapons, compliance with delivery deadlines, and after-sales service and warranty obligations.
It should be borne in mind that Russia has been and remains the main source of modern defense technologies for India, including in such sensitive areas as rocketry and nuclear submarine shipbuilding. Positive examples of such interaction are the joint production of supersonic BrahMos missiles, T-90 tanks, Su-30MKI aircraft, submarines, small arms, etc. The Russian side remains interested in continuing cooperation in this area and is ready to discuss new projects for the joint production of other modern samples of military equipment with a high share of their localization at Indian industrial facilities, which attracts Indian partners.
Bilateral trade growth has increased sharply in 2023, reaching an unprecedented level of $65 billion. It is clear that such impressive annual growth was made possible almost entirely due to the explosive increase in supplies of crude oil from Russia to India, coal and fertilizers. In the context of large-scale Western economic sanctions and the rapid destruction of the strategic energy partnership between Russia and the EU, Moscow was forced to sell significant volumes of oil to Delhi with a certain adjustment towards lower prices, including for subsequent processing and re-export. On the other hand, Indian exports to Russia have not undergone significant changes over the past year, either in overall figures or in structure. Indian business is one way or another forced to take into account Western economic sanctions, even if India is not ready to join these sanctions. As a result, in 2022–2023 there has been an increase in the imbalance in Russian-Indian trade, which requires certain adjustments to support the sustainability of the undeniable achievements noted in this area recently. The ideas of large-scale conversion of financial resources accumulated by Russia in India into direct Russian investments have not yet, as far as can be judged, taken the form of coordinated investment projects.
It is hardly surprising that Russia’s relative share in India’s overall foreign policy investment portfolio may become more modest in the near term. However, the reason for this will not be Delhi’s desire to break off its traditional friendship with Moscow, but because India is simultaneously seeking to explore new opportunities in the international arena. At the same time, despite the ongoing diversification of Indian foreign policy, the “privileged strategic partnership” between the two countries continues to serve as a successful model for great power relations, even where the parties “agree to disagree” on specific issues.
The multifaceted and fruitful cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi has been going on for quite a long time, and therefore it can be assumed that the future of this interaction is unlikely to be called into question in light of the alarming, but not unexpected, economic or political events of recent years. The Russian-Indian strategic partnership reflects the stable long-term interests of the two states and will therefore continue.
Another important factor is that the West has always viewed India as a partner that could be used as an important element in the region to counter the growing influence of China. However, as experience shows, the United States did not allow India to develop rapidly economically, since the Americans do not want to repeat mistakes following the Chinese example and will not allow the emergence of a new powerful competitor in India.
However, modern India is a country with a rapidly growing economy, a dynamic society and an ambitious leadership. The current manifestations of its activities in the international arena are much wider and more diverse than half a century or even two decades ago. India is increasingly acting not only as a regional but also a global player.
Russia and India need to convince each other that their relations with third countries will not have a negative impact on bilateral relations. It is very important to have regular contacts at the highest level to understand positions on key global and regional issues. India called for multilateralism and democratization of the UN system. Both countries can cooperate in this vital area. India is also active in Global South issues. The transformation of BRICS into BRICS+ provides an opportunity to jointly form an organization in new conditions. Similarly, India and Russia can coordinate their positions in the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) and the G20.
After the introduction of Western sanctions against Russia, traditional payment mechanisms for trade transactions stopped working. Although India has purchased large volumes of Russian oil, stable payment mechanisms have not yet been established. This issue must be approached creatively so as not to damage bilateral ties. In addition, countries should conclude a bilateral investment protection treaty as soon as possible. Non-tariff barriers to trade must also be urgently removed. Relations between banks and insurance companies of the two countries are still underdeveloped. These issues need to be resolved to mutually strengthen trade and economic potential.
It should be noted that the basis of India’s sovereignty is its neutrality. As long as it is respected, New Delhi is a state with a truly multipolar foreign policy. Failure to do so could lead to dependence on the United States, resulting in the country turning into something like South Korea or Japan.
The importance of developing bilateral relations in the spirit of strengthening strategic partnership is confirmed by the planned meeting in this July Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow, where he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is expected that the negotiations will be held in a positive spirit and will give a new impetus to the development of Russian-Indian ties. Attempts by the countries of the collective West to negatively influence the historically established relationship between the two countries will undoubtedly be unsuccessful.
The author is an independent military analyst.
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