ICICI Bank is set to announce its first quarter results for FY26 today, with analysts expecting a steady yet subdued performance amid pressure on margins, rising credit costs, and slowing loan growth. While the bank posted a strong Q4 show earlier this year, the June quarter may reflect the early impact of the RBI’s 100 basis points rate cut, which is expected to compress net interest margins and weigh on profitability.
Kotak Institutional Equities sees 11 per cent profit rise; NII, PPOP growth likely muted
Kotak Institutional Equities expects the bank to post a steady yet modest performance, with net profit expected to rise 11 per cent year-on-year to Rs 1,232 crore. However, the growth momentum may slow down sequentially due to pressure on net interest margins (NIMs), higher provisioning, and softer loan growth.
The net interest income (NII), is projected to grow around 6 per cent YoY to Rs 20,710 crore. Pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) is expected to come in at Rs 17,130 crore, reflecting a 7 per cent annual increase.
Analysts expect NIMs to shrink by 10–15 basis points sequentially, with further pressure likely in the coming quarter due to the impact of RBI’s 100 bps rate cut.
ICICI Bank’s credit growth is expected to slow to 11.9 per cent year-on-year in Q1FY26, with total advances estimated at Rs 13.69 lakh crore, up from Rs 12.2 lakh crore a year ago. However, deposits are likely to show stronger momentum, rising 15.2 per cent YoY to Rs 16.43 lakh crore.
ICICI Bank likely to see modest Q1 with pressure on margins and earnings
InCred Equities expects ICICI Bank to post a modest performance in the first quarter of FY26, with profitability and margins under pressure due to the recent repo rate cut.
Net interest margin (NIM) is likely to shrink to 4.19 per cent in Q1FY26, down from 4.41 per cent in the March quarter, as lending yields adjust faster than funding costs. Net profit is projected at Rs 114 billion, down 9.7 per cent sequentially but up 3.2 per cent year-on-year.
Pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) may dip 5.6 per cent QoQ to Rs 167 billion, while net interest income (NII) is expected at Rs 209 billion, down 1.2 per cent QoQ but up 7.1 per cent YoY.
Advances are estimated to grow to Rs 13.65 lakh crore, a rise of 11.6 per cent YoY and 1.7 per cent QoQ. Credit costs could rise to 46 basis points from 27 bps last quarter, driven by seasonal slippages and higher provisioning for unsecured loans.
The bank’s loan book has 37 per cent repo-linked, 11 per cent MCLR-linked, and 23 per cent fixed-rate loans, offering some cushion to margin volatility. Deposits form 83 per cent of liabilities, with a CASA ratio of 34 per cent.
ICICI Bank’s Q4 FY25 performance:
ICICI Bank profit surging 18 per cent in the previous quarter
ICICI Bank reported a strong 18% year-on-year increase in standalone profit after tax, rising to Rs ICICI Bank is set to announce its Q1FY26 results today, with analysts forecasting modest profit growth amid margin compression, higher provisioning, and slower loan growth due to the RBI’s 100 bps rate cut.
12,630 crore up from Rs 10,708 crore in Q4 FY24.
Net interest income (NII) also showed healthy traction, reaching Rs 21,193 crore, increase of 11 per cent YoY, supported by a firm net interest margin of 4.41 per cent.
Meanwhile, fee income, a key component of non-interest revenue, rose 16 per cent YoY to Rs 6,306 crore, largely due to retail, rural, and business banking activity.
Loan book expanded 13.9 per cent in Q4FY25
Loan growth remained robust, with total domestic advances increasing by 13.9 per cent YoY, driven by retail (+8.9 per cent) and business banking (+33.7 per cent) segments .
On the liability side, total deposits rose 14 per cent YoY to Rs 16.10 lakh crore, with CASA ratio at a healthy 38.4% and average deposits up 11.4% YoY .
Meanwhile, asset quality improved: gross NPA ratio fell to 1.67 per cent (from 1.96 per cent last quarter), and net NPA dropped to 0.39 per cent; provisions remained prudent at Rs 891 crore .
The Bank maintained a strong capital adequacy ratio of 16.55 per cent, comfortably above regulatory requirements. The Board has proposed a dividend of Rs 11 per share for FY25.