Budget 2021

Focus on health spending a positive. Despite weakness in the US business this quarter, management has reiterated its US revenue guidance of USD400-500m by FY24, India business delivered strong growth of 14% YoY in 3Q. Budget likely positive.

Consumption, economic recovery to boost. Sales are gradually recovering for Avenue Supermarkets, with 3Q sales up 10% YoY vs decline of 34%/12% in 1Q/2Q.

Economic recovery, consumption to boost sentiments. Tyre industry volumes have recovered faster than our earlier expectations due to better than expected ramp-up in volumes in both, the replacement and OE segments.

We had already upgraded FY21/22/23 EPS for Crompton by 1/6/5%, owing to faster than expected volume-based recovery in ECDs, along with share gains. Budget led economic recovery will aid this stock.