Recent elections in Thailand have propelled a political novice, literally, a six-week-old entrant and 44-year-old businesswoman, Yingluck Shinawatra, to the political centrestage as Thailand?s first female PM. Thailand?s 35 million voters have granted Yingluck Shinawatra?s Puea Thai Party (For Thais Party) a historic mandate?an absolute majority of 264 seats (of a total of 500), the second in history after enfant terrible Thaksin Shinawatra?s landslide win of the Thai Rak Thai party (Thais Love Thais) in 2005. Thaksin Shinawatra was deposed in a political coup in 2006 and has been living as a political fugitive in different countries, most recently in Dubai. Yingluck Shinawatra is Thaksin?s younger sister and thus is Thaksin by proxy. Given the recent political turmoil, Puea Thai Party?s win is a veritable turning point in Thailand?s political history?attesting to the winds of change witnessed elsewhere from Egypt to Libya?where the old order must inevitably give way to the new.

The Democrats led by Abhisit Vejjajiva (PM since 2008) have been suitably vanquished, garnering only 160 seats and have conceded to Puea Thai the right to form a government. Puea Thai?s win is an anti-establishment vote widely described by observers as a ?slap in the face? to the establishment. The Democrats have been carrying the baggage of the killings of 90 Red Shirt protestors last year, among others. Interestingly, Puea Thai itself has had a precarious lifespan. As Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a Thai academic, says, ?This is a party that has been dissolved twice; its leading politicians have been banned twice; it?s being led by a deposed exile and former PM a six-hour flight away.? Yingluck Shinawatra campaigned on the slogan, ?Thaksin thinks, Puea Thai acts?. Today, Puea Thai?s majority is enviable?it not only prevents horse trading and keeps military intervention at bay, but also widely reflects the popular pulse of a nation that has been in political turmoil since 2006.

Thailand stands sharply polarised by a Red Shirt (owing allegiance to Thaksin) vs Yellow (owing allegiance to the old order, the monarchy) divide that has torn the social-economic fabric of Thailand, which was once pleasantly known as the ?Land of Smiles?. The last five years? Thailand is anything but close to that. With stark lines of division and a countryside seething with anger and discontentment, it is akin to a virtual, political battlefield. Understandably, the Thais themselves want a way out of the political morass that has been driving away tourists and foreign investment.

On the political scenario, two forces are posited against each other. On the one hand is Thailand?s monarchy (richer than Britain?s), a set of complex institutions of a networked Bangkok-based elite (conservative royalists), far removed from the realities of Thailand?s countryside, a deeply entrenched military and bureaucracy that the Yellow Shirts have fallen back upon mostly to justify the military coup in 2006. Many, including noted Thai historians, have called for reform of the monarchy and abolition of l?se majest?, whereby anybody deemed disrespectful to the Monarch (and monarchy) has been put behind bars. And many other scholars and activists such as academic Ji Ungpakorn are in political exile. Thailand?s long-reigning ailing Monarch, 83-year-old Bhumibol Adulyadej has maintained a studied silence that has led to unfortunate consequences. On the other hand are the Red Shirts, who Jon Ungpakorn (founder of Prachatai) has described as the ?Thaksin fan-club?, and this may not be far from the mark.

While Thaksin, sitting in Dubai, has called for ?national reconciliation?, and political amnesty for Thaksin is on the cards of Puea Thai, Thaksin made his share of mistakes while serving as Thailand?s PM from 2001 to 2006. Thaksin?s war on drugs and the clampdown on Thailand?s southern Muslim provinces, coupled with a heady arrogance, made him unpopular. Those were the days when the reigning Monarch?s moral writ and authority ran large.

The bright side was Thaksin deemed that Thailand run more or less as a ?corporate enterprise?, described famously by keen observers of Thai politics Chris Baker and Pasuk Phongpaichit as ?politics of business and business of politics?. However, Thaksin gave it a twist with a generous dose of populism. Critics slammed Thaksin for ?buying? the votes of the rural poor in the countryside with money and populist policies such as a 30-baht system of universal healthcare, and village fund job creation policies. But the countryside took to the policies. A common sight in the Thaksin years was of an entrepreneurial countryfolk racing around the countryside with their subsidised motorcycles and songthaews (lorries), setting up or engaged in small-time thriving business.

At the heart of the conflict is a fundamental shift in Thailand?s own landscape, its own new order where, as Thongchai Winichakul, the professor of Southeast Asian History at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, points out, Thailand?s country folk are, strictly speaking, neither rural nor urban, with a majority having shifted from agriculture to manufacturing and the services sector. Thailand?s elite has decried the country folk as the rural poor (who constitute the Red Shirts) incapable of understanding ?democracy??yet long-time observers of Thailand such as Andrew Walker have noted that in reality Thais make for a sophisticated electorate?anxious about economic development. And who has done better than Thaksin in delivering development with freebies thrown in? Coupled with this shift is the increasing suggestion that the Monarchy has unravelled its own fortunes, what with the issue of a successor still in question. The antics of Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn?s poodle Foo Foo and pornographic videos have been damaging, to say the least. More recently, WikiLeaks cables put together by ex-Reuters journalist Andrew Marshall suggest that the Thai Monarchy is weak and that the military is calling the shots. As for the military, the popular surge makes little leeway for the military. The head of the army, Prayuth Chan-ocha, who not long ago made defamatory anti-Puea Thai speeches, now sings a different tune. The Sydney Morning Herald quoted him as saying, ?Any government coming up has the right to take office, I have no problem accepting whatever comes?.

There is new hope in the air. The first step forward is recognising the mandate. Or else, it may be back to square one. It may take a while to turn the clock back?ending censorship, freeing political prisoners and rewriting the Constitution. For now, at this remarkable moment in history, Thais have stood up! And as for Thaksin, the one who laughs the last, laughs the most?

The author is a Sinologist and has lived in Thailand from 2001-2004. Views are personal