While it is good news that the population growth rate is slowing down, the male-female ratio is still a major concern

How does the 17.64% growth in population between 2001 and 2011 compare with historical trends?

The 17.64% increase in population between 2001 and 2011, as per the provisional population number, is of major significance in the sense that it is the largest deceleration in population growth rates since independence. India?s population growth, which picked up in the initial decades, from 21.64% in 1951-61 to 24.8% in the 1961-71 period, has steadily slowed down in the next four decades. Growth rates decelerated from 24.66% in 1971-81, to 23.87% in 1981-91, to 21.54% in 1991-2001 and finally to 17.64% in 2001-01. Thus, the rate of deceleration in population growth has gone up from a marginal 0.14% in 1971-81, to 0.79% in 1981-91, 2.33% in 1991-2001 and finally to 3.9% in 2001-11.

How have the different states fared on the population front?

Population growth is heavily skewed. On the one hand, there are small union territories like Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu where population growth has exceeded 50%, and small states like Meghalaya, Pondicherry and Arunachal Pradesh where population has grown by more than a quarter during the last decade.

Among major states, the highest increase in population was in Bihar (25.1%), Jammu & Kashmir (23.7%), Chhattisgarh (22.6%), Jharkhand (22.3%), Rajasthan (21.4%) and Delhi (21%). Population growth was the lowest in the smallest states and union territories, like Goa (8.2%), Andaman & Nicobar (6.7%), Lakshadweep (6.2%) and Kerala (4.9%). And it even declined by 0.5% in Nagaland, which is most probably the first state to register a decline in population.

Any interesting trends across states?

The most surprising trend is that population growth seems to have picked up in three states and UTs. They are Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh and Pondicherry. On the other hand, population growth has decelerated sharply, much faster than the national average, in places like Nagaland, Delhi and Chandigarh.

Population growth in Tamil Nadu has picked up from 11.7% in 1991-2001 to 15.6% in 2001-11, while in Chhattisgarh it has gone up from 18.3% to 22.6%, and in Pondicherry from 20.6% to 27.7%. While some of the increase in population growth in these areas could be attributed to a faster decline in mortality rates, the bulk of the increase is likely to be on account of larger migration to these areas.

The highest deceleration in population growth has been in Nagaland, where growth went down from 64.5% in 1991-2001 to a negative of 0.5% in the 2001-11 period. And, surprisingly, urban areas like Delhi and Chandigarh have also registered a sharp deceleration in population growth rates, probably due to the growth of satellite cities around them. While population growth in Delhi slowed down sharply from 47% to 21%, in Chandigarh it fell from 40.3% to 17.1% during the period.

How have the Bimaru states fared?

The trends in growth of population in the Bimaru states are quite varied. The numbers are very encouraging in states like Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan and a bit disappointing in the case of Bihar.

In Madhya Pradesh, population growth slowed down by 4 percentage points, which was marginally higher than the 3.9 percentage point fall at the all-India level. Uttar Pradesh had a more impressive showing with population growth slowing down by 5.8 percentage points, from 25.9% to 20.1%. But Rajasthan has the best record with population growth decelerating by 7 percentage points, from 28.4% to 21.4% during the period. However, the deceleration in population growth in Bihar was much slower, with the numbers coming down by 3.5 percentage points to only 25.1%.

Are the population rankings of the states similar to their GDP ranks?

The ranking are generally similar, with one striking exception. Uttar Pradesh, which has the largest population (19.95 crore), is ranked only second in terms of GDP, while Maharashtra, which has the second largest population, has the highest GDP among states. The biggest gainer is Andhra Pradesh. The state, which is ranked fifth in terms of population, has the third highest GDP among states, while West Bengal is ranked in the fourth position both in terms of population and GDP size. The only exception is Bihar. While the state, which has 10.38 crore people, is ranked third in terms of population, it is ranked 13th in terms of GDP size.

What do the child ratios show?

The ratio of children in the 0-6 age group has declined, moving down from 15.9% in 2001 to 13.1% in 2011. This means that the share of people who will join the workforce will slowly start decelerating from the next decade. However, the ratio of children in the total population varies substantially across states. Among the major states, the population with the highest share of children include Bihar (17.9%),

Jammu & Kashmir (16%), Jharkhand (15.9%) and Rajasthan (15.3%). In contrast, the ratio of children in the population is at minimal levels in Andhra Pradesh (10.2%), Kerala (10%), Goa (9.6%) and Tamil Nadu (9.6%).

While the shrinking of the child ratio is welcome, as it shows a declining birth rate, the composition of the decline has become a source of major concern. This is because the sex ratio of the child population shows a sharp decline in female child numbers, with the ratio moving down from 927 in 2001 to 914 in 2011.The situation is now particularly alarming in states like Haryana and Punjab where the ratio has dropped to 830 and 846, respectively.