India’s sugar production in the next crop year that starts in October could fall by as much as 26% to around 200 lakh tonne because of low sowing by farmers and shift in acreage to maize and wheat in northern parts of the country, a senior sugar industry official said Friday.
“Since the last two years, farmers have not been getting adequate price for their cane, while other crops like wheat, rice, and maize are fetching good prices in the open markets. Hence there is a possibility that sugar production in the next year could be much less than 2007-08,” said Vinay Kumar, managing director, National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories. India produced around 270 lakh tonne of sugar in the current year that ends September.
Government data shows that even after more than one month of sowing, sugarcane planting in the country was down at 42.82 lakh hectare, compared with 51.74 lakh hectare a year earlier.
“This clearly shows that farmers are not very keen to plant more sugarcane during this kharif season,” another trader said. Overall, traders expect that this difference in showing between last year and this year will narrow down, but it will still be below last year’s total figures.
The impact of low sugar production could be felt on exports as well and some industry representatives are already speaking about a significant fall in output.
Exports next year could be just around 2.0 million tonne, much below this year’s actual estimated exports of around 4 million tonne. However, sugar consumption will rise to around 220 lakh tonne because of the growing demand from all sections of society. “This might lead to an alarming gap between demand and supply in the next few years and could also make us an importer of sugar,” another official added.