The growth rate of natural rubber production is slowing down in comparison to the growth rate of rubber consumption, Rubber Board deputy production commissioner KG Mohanan said. He was addressing the 114th annual conference of United Planters? Association of South India. Natural rubber consumption will be 4% in 2008 (Jan-Dec) compared with 3.6% output growth rate. In 2009, consumption is expected to grow by 4.8% while output growth is placed at 3.6%, he said.
The consumption of rubber (natural and synthetic) is expected to outstrip production by 0.52 million tonne in 2015, he said. The International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) projects rubber consumption to increase from 21.41 mt in 2006 to 24.20 mt in 2009, at an annual growth rate of 4.2% a year, he said.
Natural rubber consumption is expected to touch 10.59 mt in 2009 at a growth rate of 4% in 2008 and 4% in 2009. IRSG estimates the consumption to touch 12.30 mt in 2015 while the production stands at 11.71 mt.
Mohanan said that the relative stock is a more important factor in determining rubber price than its absolute level.
The demand-supply forecasts point to a possibility of the ratio to decline or at least remain stable during the next three years. The world stock of natural rubber in 2008 and 2009 will be more than 2 mt, he said.