Change, Barack Obama?s theme, will also resonate through the spectrum of India?s engagement with the US after the 44 th President of the United States of America takes over on January 20.
There is a sense of uncertainty here about the stand the new US administration will take on several issues that affect India.
An analysis of Obama?s position, detailed in his ?Blue Print for Change?, shows his stance on environment and energy, for instance, may give India a long-term boost. A 35% reduction in US oil consumption by 2030, as he envisions, would soften the world?s oil demand. India?s coal- and import-dependent energy economy stands to gain more from Obama?s plan to invest $150 billion in clean energy over the next decade and double fuel economy standards within 18 years.
His plan to create a new forum of largest greenhouse gas-emitting countries and re-engage with the UN framework on climate change will make India more proactive on cutting emissions. India already has the world?s maximum projects earning carbon credits after China. If Obama?s plan to reduce carbon emissions by 80% by 2030?by implementing a new system that will require all pollution credits to be auctioned?becomes a reality, opportunities for India?s carbon credit trade will shoot up.
The US is India?s largest trading partner, at $42 billion in 2007-08. The figure was $16.5 billion in 2003-04. Trade between the two countries is projected to reach $100 billion by 2012, without adding in the nuclear bit. The total foreign direct investment from the USA to India in the present decade has been $5.74 billion.
These need to be factored in while analysing Obama?s key ideas on trade, reiterated throughout his campaign trail, with a palpable bias towards protectionism? whether it is in the name of better labour and environment standards in trade pacts or awarding public contracts to companies committed to employing US citizens.
His election rhetoric about doing away with the tax deductions given to US companies moving operations abroad had seen Nasscom, India?s software lobby group, desperately seeking on Wednesday to downplay negative ramifications of his presidency on the outsourcing industry.
Trade and environment apart, other key tenets around which Obama marketed his candidature to US voters actually bode well for countries like India?even in areas ranging from geopolitics to immigration. For starters, Obama?s plan to increase the number of legal immigrants in order ?to keep families together? is good news for hopeful Indian emigrants as well as Indian workers deployed in America.
Though Obama initially opposed the Indo-US nuclear deal, his administration intends to work on reducing US and Russian nuclear stockpiles dramatically and negotiate a global ban on producing new nuclear weapons. This is largely in sync with India?s views as well as strategic interests. Again, while Obama intends to strengthen the Non-Proliferation Treaty that India has no intention of signing, the 123 pact between India and US will protect India?s interests from developments on the NPT front.
Again, the Illinois senator?s stated objective to diplomatically re-engage with Iran, and work aggressively to create a stable Middle East and West Asia, would translate into stable oil prices. The idea to seek new partnerships in India to ensure China plays by the world?s rules is not new, but should throw up more opportunities for India.