The monsoon impact on the Indian economy has surprisingly risen over time as the balance of purchasing power has begun to tilt towards rural India. So the timely arrival of the monsoons in fairly good bursts, unlike in 2009, is a welcome development. In 2009, when rains almost vanished after making a healthy start, the country was pushed towards the worst drought in almost three decades. This was not only the base of the inflationary spiral but the lower income in rural India translated into a reduction in the rate of GDP growth. This time, the initial indications fortunately don?t point towards such a desperate scenario. Although monsoon rains from June 1-23 have been about 11% below normal?above the ?tolerable limit? of 5-6%?if met officials and others are to be believed, things should improve now onwards. The government, in its June prediction of the Southwest monsoon, has forecast that rains would be around 102% of the Long Period Average (LPA) in 2010, almost 4% more than its April forecast of 98%, which means that although the beginning has not been spectacular, the end should be better.
The LPA rainfall in India for the period 1941-90 was 89 cm. The latest forecast shows that rains in July would be 98% of LPA and in August, around 101% of the LPA. In other words, overall rainfall across the country would be more in August than in July. Region wise, rainfall is likely to be 102% of the LPA over north-west India, comprising big foodgrain-growing areas of Punjab, Haryana, western UP and Rajasthan. In central India, which suffered heavily in the 2009 drought, it would be 99% of the LPA. The monsoon in eastern India, where kharif paddy production last year was severely impacted because of low rainfall, is expected to be a healthy 103% of the LPA. Water in the country?s 81 major reservoirs, as on June 24, was around 18.28 billion cubic metres. This is 131% of last year?s reserves and should take care of any immediate water needs in irrigated areas, in case the predictions fail to come true. A problem, however, will arise if rainfall doesn?t follow the IMD?s prediction for July and August?the two months in which more than 60% of the June-September Southwest monsoon season falls. Equally important is how rain is distributed throughout the four-month season. Nevertheless, farmers across the country have started planting kharif crops, with the hopes that rains will be better. Until June 25, rice has been sown in around 24.12 lakh hectares, oilseeds in 11.46 lakh hectares, and sugarcane and pulses in 47.28 and 3.07 lakh hectares, respectively. It is expected that the optimism created by IMD and the initial rainfall will sustain these hopes.
