The BJP?s young national secretary and Deogarh MP Dharmendra Pradhan is a worried man these days. So is editor-turned-MP from the Biju Janata Dal, Tathagat Satpathy. The two politicians can?t wait to find out who would be the BJD-BJP coalition?s candidate for Dhenkanal Lok Sabha seat.

With Deogarh Lok Sabha constituency abolished in the delimitation exercise, Pradhan has his eyes firmly set on the Dhenkanal parliamentary seat as several assembly constituencies from his erstwhile constituency have been merged into Dhenkanal. His worries stem from the fact that Dhenkanal falls in the BJD?s quota as per the BJD-BJP seat-sharing arrangement firmed up in the last two general elections. Over the last few weeks, Pradhan has been lobbying hard with the BJP top brass. But the final word on his fate may not be out till the end of March first week when BJD chief and Orissa chief minister Naveen Patnaik decides on whether he will keep Dhenkanal for his party or give it to the BJP.

As the LK Advani-led BJP prepares for the forthcoming electoral battle, constituencies like Dhenkanal will matter for the party?s final tally. For the last several years, Orissa has followed the way north India has voted. In 2004, a strong Vajpayee wave helped the BJD-BJP combine win 18 (BJD-11, BJP-7) of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

But the political climate in Orissa in 2009 may not be the same as it was in 2004. After the consolidation of the BJD, Orissa politics seems less affected by how rest of India votes. The BJD?s alliance partner, BJP, has also shrunk in the popular imagination after a string of electoral defeats and the corrupt public image of its ministers.

Though Naveen Patnaik has ruled the state for the last nine years, anti-incumbency does not appear to have caught up with him. In the eyes of the Oriyas, the Congress is a discredited force with rejected leaders like JB Patnaik clinging on. The erosion in the Congress votebank can be gauged from the fact that the party could gather a meagre 12 per cent of the popular vote in the December 2008 election for the Bhubaneswar Municipal Corporation

While the Congress did nothing to make a dent in the 18-30 age group, comprising 40 per cent of the total voters in the state, Patnaik has been successful in penetrating this section of the electorate. He has strengthened his popularity by appropriating all central schemes like subsidised rice, National Rural Health Mission, Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana and the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan making them look like state government schemes.

On the other hand, the Congress has attacked Patnaik for his government?s policy on mining and industrialisation forgetting to highlight the UPA?s accomplishments in the last 5 years. The opposition has failed to corner the BJD-led government on the Maoist menace as well as the state?s failure to prevent or contain the riots in Kandhamal.

With the elections to the state assembly being held simultaneously with Lok Sabha elections in April 2009, the BJD in alliance with the BJP is expected to romp home in the assembly polls. Though the BJD and BJP are expected to firm up a seat-sharing arrangement, the fissures in the coalition are all too evident, with BJP cadres expressing indignation over what they see as Patnaik?s increasing highhandedness.

If the two parties fail to cut a deal, the Orissa results could go either way. On its own, the BJP may do badly but it has a 20 per cent vote-share and its candidates may hold the key to victory in several constituencies.

In that scenario, the Congress might perform better in the Lok Sabha polls and get 4-5 more seats. Something similar happened in 1971, when the Congress won 16 of the 20 Lok Sabha seats but lost in the assembly elections held simultaneously.