While people wait with bated breath across the state, tension grips the two leading fronts as the whole of India watches to see whether the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), the local alliance partner of the country?s ruling party, the Congress, romps home or not. The exit polls, which eluded consensus, have taken the fizz out of the rank and file of both warring fronts, with two channels forecasting a photo-finish and one predicting a sweeping victory for Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). While the CNN-IBN-The Week post-poll survey predicted that the AIADMK combine would bag anywhere between 120-132 seats, the Asianet News-C-fore survey also predicted along the same lines (117-132 seats for AIADMK). But the Headlines Today survey took a different turn, giving the DMK alliance 115-130 seats, some 10-15 seats more than the opposition camp. As the results day draws close, political activists are keeping their cards close to their chests, while leaders, especially from opposition AIADMK, seem confident that they will wrest back power.
The Election Commission has completed the preparations for the May 13 counting, after a closely fought April 13 poll battle, which saw a 78.12% turnout for the 234 seats in the Tamil Nadu Assembly. A total of 2,748 candidates were in the fray. With the 2G spectrum scam involving DMK leaders like former telecom minister A Raja and the chief minister?s daughter Kanimozhi, coupled with an anti-incumbency factor casting a shadow over the DMK alliance?s poll prospects, the AIADMK was still left without any big political wave to favour its fortunes.
Even before the exit polls were out, many theories had been floating about, one saying that the ruling DMK, along with its alliance partners, may get a ?wafer thin? majority, as it is contesting only 119 seats in which it may get 60-70 seats. And along with the Congress, which contested 60 seats and the PMK with 30 seats contested, DMK will be able to cobble up a simple majority in the 234-seat assembly. According to the proponents of this theory, a share in power for the Congress will be the price DMK will have to pay. On the other side, the talk is that the AIADMK holds a fairly good chance to come back to power, mainly riding on an anti-incumbency wave and the corruption charges against DMK?s first family members and party functionaries. Interestingly, many still believe that in the freebies war that was unleashed during the campaign Jayalalithaa scored a point over her arch rival Muthuvel Karunanidhi.
With poll fever peaking, the last two weeks saw a slew of betting, reportedly taking place under cover on the narrow streets of the city, with crores of rupees being put at stake for and against both the Dravidian parties. Though bookies have allegedly favoured Karunanidhi because of his political career spanning many decades and the welfare measures he introduced in his just concluded tenure, a number of others have bet on Jayalalithaa?s comeback citing her grihanila (planetary position).
Until the electronic voting machines reveal the fate of M Karunanidhi, Jayalalithaa and their candidates, the pundits are hedging their bets because there has been no palpable wave seen in the elections. The only interesting point regarding the aam aadmi will be that the electoral outcome is coming at the time of the 2G spectrum allocation probe, in which two members of the ruling DMK have been chargesheeted by the CBI. How voters reacted to the corruption charges while casting their votes will be key. The DMK is still clouded with the internal rivalry between the siblings Stalin and Alagiri, and with the succession issue on the frontburner, it is believed that the 87 year-old Karunanidhi himself may take over the reins in the event of the DMK coming back to power. Similarly, much is at stake for Jayalalithaa, who fought a fierce battle in the elections to come back to power after a five-year long hiatus. Her party contested 160 seats besides allotting 42 to actor-politician Vijayakanth?s DMDK.
sajan.kumar@expressindia.com