The poll verdict in Kerala, which cast its vote on April 16, will have a far-reaching impact on the contours of politics in the state. Unlike the previous Lok Sabha elections, it will not be confined to the candidates put up by the Congress-led UDF and CPI(M)-led LDF in the state?s 20 seats.
In Polls 2009, the CPI(M) has performed a trial run of a new coalition formula after ejecting the Janata Dal, its longstanding ally in the state. The new recipe includes the People?s Democratic Party of Abdul Nazer Madani and Janapaksham, a breakaway faction of the BJP. Though the PDP and the Janapaksham are yet to become official partners of the LDF platform, the future role of both will depend on the performance of the CPI(M) candidates in this election.
If the LDF, which bagged 18 seats in 2004, manages a face-saving verdict this time, a share of its credit would go to the PDP, which has worked as the bridge between the CPI(M) and fringe Muslim outfits, except the pro-UDF Popular Front of India. Ditto would be the case of Janapaksham, led by former BJP leader Raman Pillai.
The fortunes of the Janata Dal(S) led by M P Veerendrakumar in Kerala will depend upon the post-poll alliance at the national level. A faction led by Veerendrakumar had worked against LDF candidates in protest against the denial of its sitting seat in the elections, while another faction led by former JD(S) minister Mathew T Thomas stood with the LDF. Both factions claim to be the real JD(S). Which faction will stay with the LDF will depend upon the strategy of its national president H D Deve Gowda, now the manager of the Third Front.
Similarly, the future political course of NCP?s Kerala president K Muraleedharan will be decided by the alliance strategy of its national president Sharad Pawar.
In short, the PDP, JD(S) and NCP effect in the elections can bring on a realignment of the LDF in the state.
But the most interesting fallout is likely to be within the CPI(M). If the LDF manages to win at least five out of 20 seats, it would be acknowledged as the personal victory of CPI(M) state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan. He has led the LDF campaign, braving an avalanche of odds created by his steamroller policy. If he emerges stronger in the party and the LDF, it would spell doom for an already beleaguered chief m-inister VS Achuthanandan. A more powerful Vijayan would press for his rival?s resignation.
On the other hand, if the UDF gains a landslide victory, the CPI(M) would have enough reasons to make Achuthanandan answerable for it. He would be crucified for the anti-incumbency factor and confusing the party workers over his stand in the SNC Lavalin case.
How the CPI, the second largest ally in the LDF, responds to the impending crisis in the CPI(M) will depend upon the performance of the party?s four candidates in the election. If the CPI fails in all four seats, the rebels within it will come out against the leaders, who have been with the Pinarayi faction in the CPI(M).
The result will also decide on the fate of the CPI(M) rebels, who have floated a panel and fielded candidates in five party bastions. If the rebels negatively affect the prospects of the CPI(M) candidates, the rebel movement will grow manifold.