Should we read much into the break-up of the Trinamool-Congress alliance for the Kolkata Municipal elections? FM Pranab Mukherjee pretty much put matters to rest when he brushed aside suggestions that the alliance won?t hold until the assembly elections next year. Signs on the ground, too, indicate that despite public posturing, the two parties need each other to win the big one.
In Bengal, particularly in the districts, there?s more of an anti-Left sentiment than a pro-Mamata one. Even though analysts are saying that Mamata is mathematically in a good place, they concede that Trinamool and Congress will be safely home if they fight the elections jointly. Although the Congress called off the alliance for the civic polls, ostensibly because Mamata wasn?t giving them enough seats for the 141 wards that are up for contest, it?s a fact that Pranab Mukherjee has given a long rope to Mamata, allowing her to rant on everything?Maoists, Left and prices. Unless Mamata does something drastic or local Congressmen turn the tables, the alliance is unlikely to be affected.
But the civic elections will be a test for both parties. In fact, analysts say the Congress perhaps decided to go on its own to ?test? its strength. Altogether, elections to 81 municipalities are to be held on May 30?the last election until the Assembly polls next year. If one went by the voting pattern in the Lok Sabha elections, the Left Front holds sway over only 16 municipalities. Whatever it wins in the municipal elections will be a gain for the Left. Trinamool is in the best place of the three. But of the 7,692 seats that will be contested for the municipal elections, if the Congress wins even a third, it will have increased its bargaining power.
For the last few state-level elections, the index of opposition unity had worked at the grassroots level. With the anti-Left wave growing, there is no reason why this shouldn?t work now. Even for the civic polls, alliances are being worked out at the ground level in favour of the strongest candidate. For West Bengal, which has been searching for an alternative for the last decade, Mamata and Pranab Mukherjee together are definitely better than temperamental didi alone.
sudipta.datta@expressindia.com