In April, IMD gave us a monsoon forecast of 98% of the long-term average, with a model error of plus or minus 5%. There can be a lot of variation around these central tendencies, based on variations in timing and regions.
So I have argued that a Met drought and an agricultural drought can be very different things. As this column is being written, average rainfall was 2% above normal but was below normal in Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, Bihar and West Bengal. These are rainfed regions with low irrigation coverage, and this is the sowing season. But the Met assures that due to the formation of two low pressure areas (one over the east-central Arabian Sea on June 6 and another over northwest Bay of Bengal and coastal Orissa on June 8), the southwest monsoon has advanced into some more parts of Maharashtra (including Mumbai), most parts of Karnataka, some parts of AP and some parts of the northeastern states. So, it seems that despite some glitches, we may well have a normal monsoon on our hands.
The really good news is not about the rainfall until now, but about the fact that agriculture seems to be on a roll in India. Agricultural growth in the season just ending is 5.4%, admittedly on a low base. The average of the last three years is less than 2%, meaning that a half per cent of GDP is weather-related. But this is not the whole story. The increase in agricultural production shown by the third advance estimates for 2010-11 was impressive by any standards. Weather plays a role in short-term agricultural growth in India and assessments are treacherous, but this time?whichever way you look at it?the going is green by all accounts. Sure, the pattern of a low growth of cereals, and more of oilseeds and cotton, remains intact. It?s pulses that deliver a welcome departure.
Comparing rice production (third advance estimates, this year against the last), we see substantial growth, largely in yield. The eastern and the central regions showed good performance, as did Gujarat, of course, flush with Narmada waters. Embarrassing the diversification ayatollahs and international think tanks that say it is specialising in commercial crops, the state is growing more rice and wheat, and the share of area with grains has gone up again. In rice flush with Narmada waters, some received directly and some through tanks (since the lower level canal system is yet to come up in a big way), the area has gone up to 0.76 million hectares and the price of paddy in the mandis is among the lowest in India. Ditto for wheat and BT cotton (where technology is a forward force).
For pulses, the MoA portal tells the story with some pride. Their strategy was to bring in new areas and to concentrate on the seeds they had. The universities in Maharashtra and MP had achieved, in some districts, yield almost 40% higher than average. ICRISAT and the Kanpur institute also delivered. Good prices helped and the retiring Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices chairman Mahendra Dev?s parting gift of high MSPs gave out the right signals. Some private players also entered the market with packets for farmers in selected areas. Area under tur and gram went up by almost a million hectares each. Urad was also on a high, with an increase of four lakh hectares. Output went up by almost a fifth. Had this not happened, we would have had to double our imports for similar supplies.
Here policy could play spoilsport since price support will be important. When you go to villages, Nafed agents say they cannot buy if the loss is more than 15%; this is a finance ministry directive, whatever that means. Also, traders are not allowed to stock pulses because of the Essential Commodities Act, which is intact from World War II. If you raise the issue, you get more lectures on liberalisation.
The other happy news for me was soya, and not only because I stay away from bad cholesterol! Here the production went up by 20% (and I am being closely watched for saying seeds are important, supposedly an anti-national statement!). If soya is a star performer, another oilseed that got a 1980s technology push is castor, and it too has done well, with a 30% increase.
Oilseeds and pulse crops delivering 20-30% growth rates! We have never heard of this earlier. Does this mean that we have crossed the hump? Looks like the kisan has done it again. When the planner and the policymaker have a clear vision, Krishi Bhavan has a go-getting crowd, then we know India does well in agriculture. It happened in the mid-1970s and also in the later half of 1980s. This time, the problems are more complex, because the demand increase is larger and more diverse, and the resource base is shrinking in terms of land and water. We will need more grains from less land. Growth of 7% per capita will mean we will need more of everything in agriculture. It is good to succeed but the goalposts will keep getting raised.
The Indian dilemma is not just food supply bottlenecks in a fast growing economy, but pushing grains without adequately developing the rest. We need some more grain, say 15% more in the rest of the decade, produced with high technology and less land. But we need a lot more of everything else also and it seems we are on our way to achieving this. I don?t agree with the Planning Commission in forecasting low agricultural growth this year. They should read the tea leaves better. Indian agriculture is growing in places and with crops that didn?t grow earlier. This will continue.
The author is a former Union minister