Coconut production is set for a quantum jump in the nation to touch 16 billion nuts in 2007-08, a Coconut Development Board official said. A study by the Kasargode-based Central Plantation Crops Research Institute (CPCRI) forecasts that nut production will increase by 31.38% over the base year 2003-04. Production for 2003-04 is recorded at 12.17 billion nuts.

Production increased to 14.8 billion nuts in 2005-06, an increase of 21.62% over the base year. Thankfully, the production increase has come from productivity gains and some states like Tamil Nadu have shown dramatic growth, CDB sources said. Kerala leads with 6 billion nuts closely followed by Tamil Nadu with 4.8 billion nuts and Karnataka with 1.2 billion nuts. Four southern states together account for 90% of the total production in the country.

India ranks number one in productivity among other coconut growing countries in the world. The average productivity of coconut in the country is 7,608 nuts per ha (2005-06).

Among the four major coconut growing states, Tamil Nadu has the highest productivity (13,133 nuts/ha), Andhra Pradesh has a productivity of 8,577nuts/ha, followed by Kerala (7,046 nuts/ha) and Karnataka (3,139 nuts/ha).

Area under cultivation has more or less stagnated over the years, and with coconut oil prices on the fall it is unlikely to show an improvement in the short-run, traders say. In 2003-04, 1,933,700 hectares were under coconut cultivation and in 2005-06, the area under cultivation improved marginally to 1,946,800 hectares.

Kerala is the main coconut growing state with an area of 897,800 hectares followed by Tamil Nadu (370,600 hectares) and Karnataka (385,400 ha).