The new government will present Union Budget 2009-10 in the first week of July. It will focus on the ?aam admi? and some export sectors hit by the global slowdown, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee said on Tuesday. He said a positive sign was the pick-up in capital inflows in April-May, but the worry was the manufacturing sector, whose growth rate was ?yet to pick up?.
Mukherjee said GDP growth would be close to the 7.1% projected by the Central Statistical Organisation. RBI?s projection puts the figure at a more conservative 6%. Buttressing his optimism, he said things could start picking up in the second half of the year. ?I am hoping so. Some indications are available.?
Mukherjee told a TV channel that while another fiscal stimulus is crucial to protect growth, the government also needed to manage the fiscal deficit. The combined deficit of the Centre and states is now estimated at over 10%.
?What is needed right now is a stimulus to growth. But at the same time, we cannot indulge in fiscal profligacy,? he said. The minister said steps taken since late 2008 were having an impact and that the government would take further measures to revive activity, admitting that some sectors such as textiles were badly hit.
The focus of government policies would be the ?aam admi?, Mukherjee said, indicating that the Budget would keep several of the promises made in the Congress manifesto to raise the minimum wage under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme to Rs 100 a day, as well as to move legislation on food security and health insurance, among others.
A further fiscal stimulus would mean the government?s borrowings, pegged at Rs 3.62 lakh crore in 2009-10, may rise further. Nearly two-thirds of this is to be raised by September-end. The finance ministry and RBI will meet on Saturday to finalise a revised borrowing plan for June, finance secretary Ashok Chawla said on Tuesday. The government is scheduled to borrow Rs 48,000 crore between May 29 and June 26.
At a day?s high of 6.58%, the yield on the benchmark government bond is up 35 basis points in May, with the bulk of the rise coming in the past four days. It closed at 6.56% on Tuesday, up from 6.50% the previous day.
Mukherjee said the government should be able to pass the Budget by the July 31 deadline, adding that he would not like to have a second vote on account. ?It will be presented in the first week of July and we will be able to pass the Budget by the end of July because July 31 is the date by which the vote on account will come to an end.
On the issue of carving a separate disinvestment ministry out of the finance ministry, Mukherjee called it mere speculation.
The finance minister is expected to meet leading industrialists in the run-up to the Budget on June 1.