Government officials sounded headily optimistic as they fielded questions from local and international reporters about a new report on the extent of Afghanistan?s mineral wealth that suggests considerable potential for products other than opium, which until now has been the country?s most lucrative export.
The report, produced by the American military and the United States Geological Survey, found that Afghanistan had at least $1 trillion in mineral wealth. The nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan are far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself.
The previously unknown deposits?including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium ? are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centres in the world, the United States officials believe.
An internal Pentagon memo, for example, states that Afghanistan could become the ?Saudi Arabia of lithium,? a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and BlackBerrys. In a news conference primarily with Afghan reporters, President Hamid Karzai?s spokesman, Waheed Omar, called the report ?the best news we have had over many years in Afghanistan.?
?The Afghan government is actively looking to its ministry of mines, to its ministry of commerce and to other entities in the Afghan government to start to bring these to the benefit of the Afghan people,? he said.
As they waited to hear. Karzai?s spokesperson, some Afghan reporters excitedly calculated among themselves how much each Afghan would theoretically get if the mineral treasure trove were divided equally. Assuming the $1 trillion valuation and Afghanistan?s population of 29 million, that would give each Afghan man, woman and child $34,482.76.
Bidding for rights to explore the reserves could begin in as little as six months, said Jawad Omar, spokesperson for the mines ministry. The minister is expected to give a detailed news conference on the report this week.
According to the report, which was described on Monday in The New York Times, Afghanistan has at least $1 trillion in mineral deposits that have yet to be unearthed. It is a potential income source so vast that if it were tapped and the wealth handled in a way to benefit the whole population, the country could be transformed. It would also turn Afghanistan into a mining centre.
That would, however, require a substantial change in the country?s circumstances, since many of the reserves were found in politically unstable areas, said Omar, the mines ministry spokesperson.
?Mining is not like a shop that you can open and immediately take advantage of,? he said, adding that it would most likely take 5 to 10 years before the country could begin to use those reserves. ?Mining needs studies, infrastructure and security in order to attract the investments,? he said. American geological experts have said it could take far longer, perhaps decades, given the lack of mining infrastructure. Afghan officials said the government believed that there was even more wealth than was reflected in the minerals survey, in part because the surveyors did not examine closely the entire country and at least 30% of it has yet to be fully investigated.
One worry, raised by reporters at the presidential spokesperson?s weekly news conference on Monday, is that neighboring countries as well as the Taliban would see the wealth as a further incentive to wrest power from the current government. Or perhaps in some areas, insurgents or warlords would try to ensure that a measure of the wealth came to them.
The value of the newly discovered mineral deposits dwarfs the size of Afghanistan?s existing war-bedraggled economy, which is based largely on opium production and narcotics trafficking as well as aid from the US and other industrialised countries. Afghanistan?s gross domestic product is only about $12 billion. ?This will become the backbone of the Afghan economy,? said Jalil Jumriany, an adviser to the Afghan minister of mines.
The corruption that is already rampant in the Karzai government could also be amplified by the new wealth, particularly if a handful of well-connected oligarchs, some with personal ties to the President, gain control of the resources. Just last year, Afghanistan?s minister of mines was accused by American officials of accepting a $30-million bribe to award China the rights to develop its copper mine. The minister has since been replaced.
Endless fights could erupt between the central government in Kabul and provincial and tribal leaders in mineral-rich districts. Afghanistan has a national mining law, written with the help of advisers from the World Bank, but it has never faced a serious challenge.
American officials fear resource-hungry China will try to dominate the development of the wealth, which could upset the US, given its heavy investment in the region. After winning the bid for its Aynak copper mine in Logar Province, China clearly wants more, American officials said.
Another complication is that because Afghanistan has never had much heavy industry before, it has little or no history of environmental protection either. ?The big question is, can this be developed in a responsible way, in a way that is environmentally and socially responsible?? Brinkley said.