The Legislative Assembly results in Maharashtra have come as a terrible blow for the Shiv Sena, with its breakaway splinter and rival Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) breaking the Sena monopoly over xenophobic issues in the state. The MNS has won 13 seats in its debut Assembly election.

The Sena has won just 44 seats in 2009 as against 63 in 2004. As Sena leaders and newly elected MLAs meet on Monday, October 26, to introspect on what went wrong, certain setbacks seem irreversible.

The crisis in the Sena deepened after Thackeray Sr anointed his son, Uddhav, as the executive president in 2003. It came at a time when nephew, Raj, had groomed himself to take on his uncle?s mantle. The cousins are poles apart in terms of personality attributes, with Uddhav being softspoken and introverted, as against Raj, who is an aggressive rabble-rouser.

After taking over as number two in the party, Uddhav sought to broadbase Sena support by reaching out to other communities. The result was the ?Mee Mumbaikar? campaign in which all Maharashtrians (officially defined as all those living in the state for over 15 years) were included. The implementation of the campaign was easy with the Sena controlling the municipal corporation in Mumbai.

However, the decision did not go down well among party cadres who reveled in a xenophobic politics. The campaign failed as agitated Shiv Sainiks took up cudgels against migrant jobseekers visiting Mumbai for tests and interviews. The agitators were mainly supporters of Raj, who is senior to Uddhav in politics and has headed the youth wing of the party. Uddhav?s policies were also opposed by hardliners like Narayan Rane.

The next round of confrontation came in the 2004 Assembly elections over the selection of candidates. Uddhav?s detractors accused him of being influenced by a coterie of people who had no field experience. There were allegations of money playing a role in the distribution of tickets. The party won 63 Assembly seats in the election, but the internal hostilities were on the rise.

A year later, Rane revolted against Uddhav and was sacked. He joined the Congress and engineered the defection of seven Sena MLAs, reducing the Sena tally in the Assembly. In 2006, Raj revolted against Uddhav and broke away from the Sena to float the MNS. Initially, he wanted to broadbase the MNS and reach out to the Dalits and Muslims. However, after a bleak year, when the new outfit seemed to be making little headway, he decided to concentrate on the ?Marathi? and ?sons of the soil? agenda.

Later, the decisions of the Sena-ruled municipal corporation in Mumbai to grant tax concessions to Bhojpuri films and the party?s efforts to organise the Chhat pooja for north Indians, came as a boon for Raj who took to the streets. Another round of attacks on migrant jobseekers from north Indian states for a railway recruitment examination enhanced the support of local youth for Raj.

Thackeray Sr, who has often criticised the Gandhi family for its ?dynastic rule?, rallied behind his son. He even prevented Raj from using his pictures on MNS posters, which only helped Raj in getting more sympathy from Sena cadres. In the 2007 civic elections, the MNS made its political debut in local bodies by winning 45 seats (including 12 in Nashik and seven in Mumbai). The Sena, which retained power in Mumbai, refused to see the writing on the wall.

The first big jolt from the MNS came in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, when the outfit contested 12 seats, without opening its account. However, in 10 of these constituencies, it spoiled the chances of the Sena and the BJP by garnering over a lakh votes in each.

In the just concluded Assembly elections, the MNS has made an impressive assembly debut by winning 13 seats. The Sena has blamed it on the immaturity of the younger generation of voters and the Congress policy of divide and rule.

Uddhav can become more aggressive and compete with his cousin, much against his temperament. Alternatively, he could go ahead and give a new face to the Sena, by broadening its base. However, in that case the Sena would lose both its USP and its cadres, at least till other sections of society feel confident enough to join the party. Another option, unrealistic given Raj?s evident megalomania, would be to team up with his cousin and work out a division of labour, with Uddhav looking after the rural areas and Raj handling the cities.

For Raj, too, the going will be tough for the 2014 elections. The people who have supported him are mainly jobless youth who believe that he will provide them employment. They will start demanding results sooner than he expects, whether he remains in power or in the opposition.

The Sena, which is now blaming the MNS for being a stooge of the Congress, was also promoted by the Congress in the 1960s to take on the growing clout of the Communists in Mumbai?s textile hub. The Sena had consolidated its position then by targeting south Indians. As history repeats itself, Mumbai and Maharashtra must suffer the farce.