What next for the Kyoto Protocol?

Uncertainty is growing over the future of the Kyoto Protocol, the first legally binding treaty to cut greenhouse gases blamed for warming the planet. Nearly 40 industrialised nations — all except the US — are meant to meet targets for emissions during the pact?s 2008-12 first phase. Some countries are way behind their targets and are likely to miss them.

Japan, Russia and Canada have said they will not extend cuts under the protocol beyond 2012, saying they instead want a new treaty with targets for all major emitters. China and India say Kyoto countries must take the lead and extend the pact.

WHAT IS THE KYOTO PROTOCOL?

It is a pact agreed by governments at a 1997 UN conference in Kyoto, Japan, to reduce greenhouse gases emitted by developed countries by an average of 5.2% below 1990 levels during the five-year period 2008-12.

A total of 193 nations have ratified the pact. Developing nations do not have binding emissions targets under Kyoto but are encouraged to take voluntary steps to curb the growth of carbon dioxide pollution from power stations, cars and industry.

IS IT LEGALLY BINDING?

Kyoto has legal force from February 16, 2005. It represents more than 60% of developed nations? total emissions but its share of world emissions has shrunk to 27% due to strong growth in emerging economies.

The US, the world?s second largest greenhouse gas emitter after China, decided against implementing Kyoto in 2001, reckoning it would be too expensive and wrongly omitted developing nations from a first round of targets to 2012.

HOW WILL IT BE ENFORCED?

Countries overshooting their targets in 2012 will have to make both the promised cuts and 30% more if a second period is agreed from 2013.

SO WILL KYOTO FADE AWAY?

There?s a real risk of this happening. Efforts to combat climate change could dissolve into purely national targets beyond 2012, perhaps with some elements of Kyoto surviving. The US rejection of Kyoto and opposition in the US Congress to emissions targets is another big uncertainty.

WILL ALL COUNTRIES MEET THEIR TARGETS?

Unlikely. Kyoto targets for 37 rich nations that are committed to cut emissions range from an 8% cut for the European Union from 1990 levels to a 10% rise for Iceland. But some countries, including Canada and Spain, say they will miss their targets by a wide margin, despite the threat of penalties.

But recession, cutting industrial output, has put targets in reach for many nations.

WHAT ABOUT KYOTO?S CARBON MARKET MECHANISMS?

A key part of Kyoto is a scheme that allows rich nations to meet a part of their emissions targets by buying carbon offsets from clean-energy projects in developing nations.

Called the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), it has generated billions of dollars in investment in wind farms, hydro power plans, solar water heaters and biomass power generators in poorer nations, creating valuable offsets that can be traded for profit or used to meet greenhouse gas targets.

UN climate talks have agreed to preserve the CDM beyond 2012 but investors are not fully convinced since the whole notion of binding emissions caps drives the market for the offsets.