India and other South Asian countries are expected to get a ?normal? rainfall during forthcoming monsoon months (June-September), which is expected boost food production in the region, a global forum has predicted.
The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, which met late last week in Kathmandu, in its prediction has stated ?large-scale summer monsoon rainfall will mostly likely to be within the normal range with a slight tendency towards higher side of the normal range.?
Weather scientists from South Asian countries, including India, who participated in the forum meet, had based their prediction on basis of forecasts from different climate models. They also took into account prevailing global climate conditions such as sea-surface temperature conditions over the equatorial Pacific and the Indian Oceans, winter and spring snow cover and surface temperature anomalies over Northern Hemisphere.
The South Asian forum has also noted that there is ?uncertainty? partly because of the spring time predictability limit and partly due to the likely absence of El Nino and La Nina conditions in the pacific during the monsoon. While presence of El Nino weakens the monsoon rains, the latter strengthens it.
The prediction of a normal monsoon comes at a time India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to announce its first forecast later this week.
Monsoon rains are crucial for India as 55% of country agricultural land is rainfed and production of kharif crops such as pulses, oilseeds, sugarcane and paddy depend on monsoon rains. These crops play critical role in determining the food inflation graph.
Agriculture minister Sharad Pawar last week said that IMD is expecting a normal south-west monsoon this year. However he said IMD would wait till the first week of May for giving a correct picture on monsoon rain. The IMD officials are cautious as last year it had predicted that the southeastern monsoon would be ?mostly likely?’ normal, with a rainfall of 99% of the long-period average (LPA), which is the average annual rainfall of 89 cm during 1951-2000.
However the actual rainfall during monsoon months of 2012 were 92 % of its LPA as many parts of the country such as Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka faced drought-like conditions because of lack of rains. ?The forecast for July rainfall over the country as a whole was an overestimate and that for rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season was an underestimate,? IMD stated in its monsoon report, 2012.
IMD had predicted deficient rainfall for 2009. But the actual rainfall turned out to be far below the IMD estimates. IMD had also failed to predict the droughts of 2002 and 2004. Last year, the monsoon rains began on a brisk note in June and then lost momentum during the later part of the month. The rains revived again in July. The break in rains from June-end to July adversely impacted kharif foodgrain production. India?s grain output is expected to be around 250-255 million tonne in 2012-13, down from last year?s record output of 259 mt.