Assembly polls verdict: Congress tense, BJP reaches out, UPA ally NCP voices fear

Sunday’s Assembly polls, results are set to have a direct bearing on the ongoing Winter Session of Parliament. If the scoreline is 4-0 (excluding Mizoram) in favour of the BJP, as predicted by the exit polls, the remaining part of the session is set to become a mere ritualistic affair, with the government abandoning all contentious legislation. It will also ignore the BJP’s demand for extending the session, sources said.

With a Congress washout seen as an indicator for 2014, the entire decision-making process may grind to a halt about five months ahead of General elections.

While Congress general secretary Digvijaya Singh Saturday rejected any link between the results of Assembly and parliamentary polls, citing past examples, there is palpable unease in the party. A sweep in these elections could make Narendra Modi an unstoppable force.

These elections were virtually a semi-final contest between Modi and Rahul Gandhi, with the two leading as well as planning their party campaigns. If Modi put his foot down to get Vijay Goel replaced by Harsh Vardhan in Delhi, Rahul reduced Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot to playing his shadow in a number of rallies addressed by him, as a result of which the CM himself could not canvass for most of the party candidates.

Still, as the countdown began to Sunday morning, the Congress continued to nurse hopes of capturing Chhattisgarh and to fancy its chances in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan ? as per the feedback given to Congress president Sonia Gandhi by party functionaries. In Delhi, where the Aam Aadmi Party performance holds the key, the Congress took heart from an online survey conducted by it post-exit polls that gave the party 31 seats in the 70-member state Assembly.

“We are hoping for the best and prepared for the worst,” an AICC general secretary in charge of one of the states going to polls told The Sunday Express.

The despondency in the party was, nonetheless, evident, with some party leaders from Rajasthan already lobbying for the post of leader of the Opposition even as a whisper campaign against Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit gathered pace.

The top party leadership, however, seemed determined to keep all thoughts about poll results at bay. On Friday evening, the Congress Working Committee met to condole Nelson Mandela’s death and no words were exchanged about the polls. Prime Minister later stayed back for a word with Sonia but it was also to discuss who would be sent for Mandela’s funeral.

Even as the BJP camp was in a celebratory mood, the party is not putting its guard down and is learnt to have started touching base with potential winners among Independents in Rajasthan and Delhi. If it registers resounding victories, as predicted by the exit polls, the BJP may harden its stand on contentious legislations.

A 4-0 result may also settle the debate in the party once and all on Modi. However, any mixed or adverse result would give fresh boost to his detractors.

Among the jittery Congress allies, the NCP was the first to concede that it was “worried” about the results having a bearing on the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. “These results have become more important because Lok Sabha elections are so close. It will certainly have an impact on general elections in terms of the momentum and also the morale of party workers. It may give a boost to Modi too,” Union minister of state and senior NCP leader Tariq Anwar said. He, however, qualified his remarks by saying that if the AAP manages to get 17-18 seats, it would be an indication of “no Modi wave”.

Trying to look at the bright side, Anwar added: “As an alliance partner, we are naturally worried about the results but it will also give us an opportunity to rectify our mistakes. Having said that, it is also a fact that in the past the party that won Assembly elections did not necessarily won the subsequent Lok Sabha elections.”

Asked if the issue of “leadership” and its perceived lack in the UPA dispensation may have gone to the BJP’s advantage, he said, “It is not just the leadership issue. We could not publicise even the good works of this government while the opposition propaganda about drawbacks and weaknesses in the UPA succeeded.”

Emphasising his point that the Assembly results have no bearing on the Lok Sabha polls, Digvijaya said: “In November 2003, the BJP won three out of four states and yet lost in the national elections. In the 1998 parliamentary elections, the Congress did not do too well in Madhya Pradesh, but in November the Congress won the state Assembly elections. Issues are quite different. So, let’s not read too much into these results.”

“Even if we get a wake-up call now, it’s fine. We will at least have about six months to set our house in order,” said a Congress MP from Uttar Pradesh.

The Assembly election results might also have implications for the process of transition of power in the party. While Sonia has virtually handed over the reins to son Rahul and let him entirely run the show in the Assembly elections, a section of Congressmen believe that a washout could force her to be pro-active again to steer the party through the next general elections.