Punjab, the grain bowl of India, is in danger of losing the coveted tag as depleting groundwater levels force the state to seriously consider reducing the planting of water-intensive paddy crop in the medium-to-long term to avoid a disaster.

After a recent meeting with Punjab chief minister Parkash Singh Badal, the Planning Commission has decided to send a team of experts to the state to review the problem and suggest ways to tackle it, official sources told FE.

?Considering Punjab will need to reduce area under paddy cultivation to prevent over exploitation of water resources in the long run, the expert committee of the Planning Commission will recommend steps to diversify agriculture to alternative crops like maize and their procurement and marketing,? said one of the sources.

Punjab?s shrinking rice production may spell trouble for food security as the state accounts for over 10% of the country?s rice output but contributes around 25% to central grain reserves ? thanks to a strong procurement network and high local taxes that discourage traders from purchasing from farmers.

Though India?s granaries are full with bumper harvests and more than three years of export restrictions, the country?s reliance on the state to boost central reserves hasn?t diminished. The government?s plan to implement a Food Security Act, which will guarantee subsidised grain supplies to around 64% of the population, will only enhance the dependence if other states, mainly in eastern India with high potential to raise yield, don?t fill in the gap.

State-run agencies have procured 7.73 million tonnes of rice so far this season, compared with 8.63 million tonnes a year earlier. The state is expecting 10.5 million tonnes of rice output in the crop year through June, down marginally from 10.8 million tonnes last year.

Although Punjab has been contemplating promoting diversification from paddy to less water-intensive crops, it has ramped up efforts only recently, apprehending an imminent crisis. As many as three-fourths of the 137 blocks of the state are facing acute shortage of groundwater. Eighteen blocks of ?the land of five rivers? have been asked to ban new borewells for drawing underground water. Sangrur district remains the worst affected, while the industrial city of Ludhiana also faces acute water scarcity.

However, moving farmers away from the paddy crop in the state is easier said than done, especially in the absence of any worthwhile incentives for the diversification, said a senior state government official.

?The farmer will decide on the acreage going by his profit calculationscrop. The state can?t force him; it can only lure him towards some other crop through incentives. Going by the state?s current financial position, it will be a hard task,? he added.

Moreover, the government has to help create a market for such produce so that the farmer will have ready buyers for the new crops, he added.

Former chief minister Amarinder Singh had asked the Centre to provide subsidies for a few years to shift farmers from cultivating wheat and rice to citrus fruits, where incomes were higher and the damage to the water table less. At an event in Delhi around three years ago, Badal had also sought central help to tackle the problem, although no such aid came by.

A central government official said any proposal for subsidy, if it?s required, to move farmers away from paddy will hinge on the recommendations of the expert team and availability of funds.

Another committee will be set up in the department of science and technology, which will consist of senior officials of the ministry of science and technology, CSIR, department of Earth Sciences, Central Ground Water Authority and state government officials, the sources said. This will suggest measures to tackle problems of water ecology, including the deteriorating quality of sub-soil water and inadequate treatment of sewage water in rural areas.