The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a warmer pre-monsoon season in India with average temperatures from March to May across half the country likely to go above normal by more than 1 degree Celsius. North India, including the national capital Delhi, will face the maximum heat. IMD has predicted that seasonal average maximum temperature in the states of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, HCD (Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi), Himachal Pradesh, west and east Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, west and east Uttar Pradesh, west and east Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh will be more than 1 degree Celsius than normal.

The Southern and Eastern states will witness a moderate rise in temperature. In Kerala, Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema, the temperature will be more than normal by less than 0.5 degree Celsius. Also, north-eastern states of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura will witness temperature be less than 0.5 degree Celsius above normal.

“During the 2018 Pre-monsoon Season (March to May), warmer than normal temperatures are likely in all meteorological sub-divisions of the country. Seasonal (March-May) average temperatures over many of the subdivisions from northwest and neighbouring central India are likely to be above normal by more than 1.0 oC,” the department said in a press release.

The department also predicted 52% probability that maximum temperatures in the core heat wave zone during the period of March to May will touch their peak. This means that India might witness a lot of heat waves in the coming months.
The states that fall in this zone are Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Telangana, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

These predictions were made by IMD based on the conditions in February. It is based on the MMCFS model which is being used to prepare forecasts since 2012. The model was developed by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune during the Monsoon Mission Phase. It was implemented at the office of Climate Research and Services (CRS), IMD, Pune from January, 2017.