Strait of Hormuz status check: Is the waterway really open? Confusion persists amid US-Iran contradictions

Having effectively blocked the important oil shipping channel since Iran was first attacked in late February, Tehran switched its tone on the issue on Friday. The movement of shipping vessels through the strait notably depends on two significant ceasefires: a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran and the new 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon.

However, the two short-term ceasefires are not the only factor. Iran has made clear that the strait’s opening is highly “conditional.” The waterway will be closed unless the US blockade of Iranian ports is lifted. The soaring confusion surrounding the waterway has taken a severe toll on global trade and oil prices. Here’s what we know about the channel’s current situation.

Has Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz?

As of Saturday, Iran has once again announced control of the Strait of Hormuz, reverting to “its previous state.” According to a statement carried by Iranian media, the Iranian military’s operational command, Khatam Al-Anbiya, described the US blockade of Iranian ports as “piracy,” saying, “For this reason, control of the strait of Hormuz has reverted to its previous state, and this strategic waterway is under the strict management and control of the armed forces.”

“Until the US restores the complete freedom of navigation for vessels from an Iranian origin to a destination, and from a destination back to Iran, the situation in the strait of Hormuz will remain strictly controlled and in its previous state.”

The new update only further added to the confusion as the statement comes after previous claims of reopening the waterway.

On Friday, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, announced that passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz had been declared open. His social media announcement came on the first full day of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

“In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep of Iran,” he wrote on X.

Araghchi’s initial announcement about the Strait of Hormuz being open for the “remaining period of ceasefire” sent crude oil prices tumbling. After the announcement, Brent crude oil fell below $90 a barrel. Earlier in the day, it had been above $98. However, prices were still alarmingly high compared to the $70 mark before the conflict.

Following his declaration, Iranian state TV quoted a “senior military official,” saying that the passage of ships would be through a “designated route” and that military ships’ access to the strait would remain “prohibited.”

What did Trump say about the Strait of Hormuz?

Shortly after Araghchi’s post on X, US President Donald Trump thanked Iran on Truth Social. “Iran has just announced that the the Strait of Iran is fully open and ready for full passage. Thank you!” he wrote online in his usual all-caps style. In a follow-up post, he added, the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open and ready for business.”

Writing further, Trump said, “But the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran, only, until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete.”

“This process should go very quickly in that most of the points are already negotiated. Thank you for you attention to thus matter!”

Having headed the Iranian delegation in the US talks in Pakistan, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, eventually slammed Trump on X, saying that the POTUS “made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false”.

Directly addressing the Strait of Hormuz’s status, he said that the Strait “will not remain open” due to the “continuation of the blockade.”

Passage through the Strait of Hormuz is still complicated

According to a Bloomberg report citing marine traffic data, four Indian and two Greek vessels made a U-turn after failing to transit the strait on Saturday despite the previous go-ahead from both the US and Iran. Indian tankers – Sanmar Herald, Desh Garima, Desh Vaibhav, Desh Vibhor – were headed toward Hormuz from Dubai when they were forced to turn back. Alongside the two Greek vessels – Nissos Keros and Minerva Evropi, the tankers hold about 8.3 million barrels of non-Iranian crude oil.

While the exact reasons for the failed journey remain unknown, the report added that the vessels are believed to have received a radio warning late Friday requiring clearance from the Iranian navy to pass through Hormuz.

Although 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) generally passes through the strait, the number of ships passing through the waterway has fallen severely amid the ongoing violence. Major shipping companies continue to express concerns about the safety of their crews and ships.

Iran had previously also threatened to attack tankers, in addition to issuing warnings about mines being laid in the strait’s path. Although Friday’s announcement may have been deemed a big breakthrough, possibly signalling much-needed relief for global energy supplies, a number of ships trying to exit the strait faced a different reality that day.

Matt Smith, the director of commodity research at Kpler, said that some tankers and cargo ships trying to depart the strait via the route designated by Iran around Larak Island suddenly turned back, according to CNBC’s report.

Further responding to the contradictory statements emerging from the US and Iranian sides, Matthew Wright, senior freight analyst at Kpler, pointed out that it all meant the waterway was functionally closed, calling the current situation a “false dawn.” He also pointed out that it would take months for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal. Moreover, large companies are expected to avoid jumping into action first and watch others try their hand at a safe passage first.

Similarly, the world’s largest shipping association, BIMCO, urges ships to avoid the strait due to the threat of mines. Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s chief security officer, said the area is “not declared safe for transit at this point.”