In a year marked by global supply disruptions and volatile energy markets, India’s fuel demand projections have landed almost perfectly on target, with actual consumption reaching 243.19 million tonne (MT) against an estimate of 244.00 MT in FY26, delivering a near-flawless 99.7% realisation — even as supply-side stress dragged LPG and petcoke below expectations.

Transport fuels continued to anchor consumption growth. Diesel (HSD), which accounts for the bulk of fuel demand, rose to 94.70 MT, exceeding estimates of 94.09 MT with a 100.7% realisation, while petrol (MS) reached 42.59 MT against a projection of 42.53 MT, achieving 100.1% accuracy.

Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) also tracked above estimates, with consumption at 9.16 MT compared to 9.13 MT, translating into 100.3% realisation, reflecting sustained recovery in aviation activity.

“Every year, PPAC does an extensive exercise for estimating consumption… It is noted that these estimates are very accurate and thus work as yardsticks for better planning,” the report said.

However, beneath the headline accuracy, the numbers reveal clear stress points. LPG consumption came in at 33.21 MT, lower than the estimated 33.70 MT, resulting in 98.5% realisation, with the shortfall attributed to supply constraints.

“LPG realization is 98.5% due to supply constraints,” the report noted, highlighting the impact of disruptions in sourcing and logistics.

Petroleum coke recorded the sharpest miss, with actual consumption at 19.85 MT compared to an estimate of 20.96 MT, translating into 94.7% realisation, indicating weaker-than-expected industrial demand.

Bitumen consumption also trailed projections at 8.84 MT against 9.09 MT, achieving 97.2% realisation, suggesting moderation in infrastructure activity.

In contrast, some segments outperformed expectations. Fuel oil and LSHS consumption rose to 6.40 MT, delivering 104.2% realisation, while kerosene (SKO) demand stood at 0.46 MT, achieving 102.5% realisation, reflecting resilience in smaller segments.

Naphtha consumption edged above estimates at 11.74 MT with 100.4% realisation, while lubricants and greases remained broadly in line at 4.91 MT, achieving 99.9% accuracy.