Leading domestic brokerage house, Motilal Oswal Financial Services has initiated coverage on Aditya Birla Real Estate (ABREL) with a Buy call and a target price of Rs 2,275. This implies an upside potential of around 33% from current levels. As per Motilal Oswal, this Aditya Birla Group stock has delivered pre-sales of around Rs 8,100 crore in FY25, significantly outperforming several peers.
The brokerage firm estimated that this translates into a 90% CAGR in pre-sales between FY21-FY25. Looking ahead, bookings are expected to grow at a 26% CAGR from FY25 to FY28, supported by a strong launch pipeline and steady demand in premium and luxury housing segments.
Motilal Oswal on Aditya Birla Real Estate: Launch pipeline spread across major cities
According to the report, Aditya Birla Real Estate has a visible residential pipeline of about Rs 35,100 crore in gross development value over the next 2–4 years. This includes around Rs 15,100 crore from unsold inventory in ongoing projects, Rs 4,620 crore from upcoming launches, and Rs 1,860 crore from sold inventory yet to be recognised. Motilal Oswal said these projects are concentrated in MMR, Bengaluru, Pune, and NCR, which continue to see healthy demand for premium housing.
Motilal Oswal on Aditya Birla Real Estate: Business model keeps capital needs in check
Motilal Oswal noted that ABREL follows a redevelopment-led and joint development-focused model, supplemented by selective outright acquisitions. This approach allows the company to scale without heavy upfront land purchases. The brokerage added that the Aditya Birla Group brand plays a role in attracting landowners, partners, and homebuyers, helping execution move faster.
Motilal Oswal on ABREL: Collection strength improves cash visibility
The brokerage highlighted that collections have grown at a 52% CAGR since FY21, faster than presales growth of 14% over the same period. As per Motilal Oswal, collection efficiency is expected to improve from about 33% in FY25 to nearly 60% by FY28. The report estimates near- and medium-term cash flow visibility of around Rs 17,600 crore, including Rs 5,090 crore of unsold inventory and Rs 12,030 crore of pending collections.
Motilal Oswal on ABREL: Surplus after project costs adds flexibility
Motilal Oswal said that after accounting for around Rs 9,690 crore in project completion costs, ABREL is expected to generate a surplus of about Rs 7,420 crore. This surplus can be used to reduce debt, speed up execution, and fund future projects, as per the brokerage.
Motilal Oswal on ABREL: Earnings expected to rise sharply
The report estimates ABREL’s revenue to grow at a 69% CAGR between FY25 and FY28, reaching around Rs 5,890 crore by FY28. For FY26 alone, revenue growth is pegged at about 20% year-on-year, taking revenue to nearly Rs 1,460 crore. Motilal Oswal also expects EBITDA to rise to about Rs 1,010 crore and PAT to around Rs 980 crore by FY28, supported by margin expansion.
Motilal Oswal on ABREL: Valuation based on project and land assets
Motilal Oswal said it values Aditya Birla Real Estate’s s residential project pipeline at about Rs 18,400 crore, while existing commercial assets are valued at around Rs 1,500 crore. The company’s 157-acre land bank is valued at nearly Rs 3,900 crore, according to the report. These estimates form the basis of the brokerage’s sum-of-the-parts valuation and the target price of Rs 2,275 per share.