The BJP is likely to register a comfortable victory to continue a straight second term in the forthcoming assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, according to the first round of the ABP-CVoter survey. The BJP is facing a direct challenge from the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress in the state.
Going by the prediction of the survey, the saffron party will enjoy an easy win and is expected to bag anywhere between 259 and 267 seats while the SP is likely to win around 109-117 seats. The survey has predicted 12-16 seats for the BSP and just 3-7 seats for the Congress.
The reduced tally of the BJP, as compared to 2017 assembly polls, is credited to an improved performance by Akhilesh Yadav’s party. However, the survey has also projected the BJP’s vote share to witness a slight rise of 0.4 per cent.
Riding the Modi wave, the BJP-led NDA had in 2017 registered a thumping victory, bagging a massive 324 out of the 403 seats. The Samajwadi Party was a distant second with 54 seats in its kitty while the BSP won seats. The Congress’ dismal poll performance left the party with just seven seats.
A reason for the BJP’s comfortable win in UP can be attributed to the fact that 44 per cent of the people surveyed said they are happy with the work that Yogi Adityanath has done for the state.
The much-anticipated polls are seen as a prestige battle, not just for the BJP, but also the SP, BSP and the Congress who claim to turn the tables. While the Samajwadi Party and the Congress have said that they will forge alliances with smaller parties, Mayawati has announced that her party will go it alone.
Political observers believe that instead of a formal alliance, any tactical understanding between the Congress and the SP will be more beneficial to both the parties.
If the Congress contests on all seats of the state, it might eat into the BJP vote bank, particularly those who were looking for an alternative to the saffron party but are not willing to vote for the SP and BSP. However, both the SP and BSP have shown their disinterest in aligning with the Grand Old Party, which has only seven MLAs in the state.