A new study has warned that the United States could end up spending around $7.8 billion over the next five years if childhood vaccination rates keep falling and measles outbreaks continue to spread. The findings come from the Common Health Coalition and the Yale School of Public Health, at a time when some top US health officials are facing criticism for spreading doubt around vaccines.
The report warned that falling measles vaccination rates in the United States could lead to around 17,000 infections every year and cost the country nearly $1.5 billion annually over the next five years.
Rising cases already putting pressure on health system
Researchers from the University of Florida and Yale School of Public Health found that measles outbreaks in 2025 alone cost about $244 million. That works out to roughly $104,600 per case.
Most of this money was spent on controlling outbreaks, including contact tracing, emergency vaccinations, and the loss of productivity when people missed work or school.
Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has also moved to change a key federal vaccine advisory panel, a step that has raised concerns among public health experts.
What could happen if vaccination drops further?
The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, shows the situation could become much worse if vaccination rates continue to fall. Even a 1% yearly drop in the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine among young children could lead to more than 17,000 cases per year by 2030. This could also result in over 4,000 hospitalisations and dozens of deaths annually.
By that time, yearly costs could rise to about $1.5 billion, which is more than six times current levels.
Uneven impact across the country
Researchers also said the impact would not be the same everywhere. Areas with lower vaccination rates would see more outbreaks and higher costs per case, since weaker immunity forces authorities to use more aggressive and expensive control measures.
They added that the real costs could actually be higher than estimated because the study does not fully include long-term health complications or the economic impact of deaths.
Researchers warned that “Even marginal reductions in MMR vaccine uptake can result in disproportionately large health and economic burdens.”
Cases already at a multi-decade high
The US recorded 2,281 measles cases last year, the highest number since 1991. Researchers said this also puts the country’s measles elimination status at risk. Health experts recommend a two-dose MMR vaccine (measles, mumps, rubella) for full protection. According to CDC data, about 92.5% of kindergarten children were vaccinated in the 2024–25 school year. But experts warn that this is still below the 95% level needed for community immunity, where the spread of the disease is largely contained.
The report also notes that vaccination rates have been falling slowly by about 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points each year, driven partly by misinformation.
So far this year, the US has already reported 1,136 measles cases in just two months, nearly half of last year’s total. Around 92% of those infected were unvaccinated or had unknown vaccination status, and 81% were children and teenagers.
The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) has urged health officials to do more to promote vaccines and support outbreak-hit areas.
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