Yardeni Research is sticking to its bold long-term forecasts, expecting gold to hit $10,000 per ounce and the S&P 500 to reach 10,000 by the end of 2029. These targets imply sharply different return profiles for the two assets over the next 3.5 years.
Yardeni Research anticipates a 122% return on gold over the next 3.5 years, translating to an approximate 25% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). At the same time, they expect a 9-11% CAGR return on the S&P 500 during the same period, despite being bullish in the near term.
Gold: From $4,500 to $10,000
Gold currently trades around $4,500, almost at the same level where it began in January 2026. “We are currently targeting the gold price to reach $5,500 by the end of this year, and $10,000 by the end of the decade,” reads the note by Yardeni Research.
But what makes Yardeni Research so bullish on gold? After all, the current headwinds seem to be taking the shine off the yellow metal.
The firm, however, believes these headwinds are temporary — and that once they clear, they will actually turn into tailwinds for gold.
“The war boosted the dollar’s foreign-exchange value, which is bearish for gold. It also put upward pressure on interest rates, which is also bearish for gold. A few central banks were forced to sell their gold reserves to support their currencies as higher oil prices weighed on their currencies. The Fed is likely to turn more hawkish during the summer. That could stall any serious rally attempt by gold traders. The end of the war should diminish those bearish factors,” says the note.
S&P 500: From 7,600 to 10,000
Currently, the S&P 500 is at around 7,600. Yardeni Research expects the index to reach 10,000 by the end of the decade, which translates into a 9-11% CAGR return over the next 3.5 years.
So, will gold and equities rise together? Historically, gold and the S&P 500 are inversely correlated, but over the long term both drift upwards. Yardeni Research also expects some corrections and profit booking over this period, leading to rebalancing into other assets. In short, Yardeni Research anticipates money to move out of equities into gold over the next few years.
“Our long-term bullish stance on gold rests on the idea that the S&P 500 could rally to 10,000 by the end of the decade. We expect that along the way, investors will rebalance into other assets, including gold. The S&P 500 and the price of gold tend to be inversely correlated on a cyclical basis, but in sync on a trend basis. So if and when the S&P 500 reaches 10,000, then the price of gold should reach $10,000,” says Yardeni Research in their note.
Near-Term Outlook: Bullish, But Risks Loom
As far as their current outlook on US markets is concerned, Edward Yardeni, President, Yardeni Research, tells Bloomberg that US stocks aren’t in a bubble — they’re powered by fabulous earnings momentum he calls FEMO, driving the market’s basic thrust higher.
The S&P 500 is up 11% this year, but the price-to-earnings multiple has actually contracted 4.6%. The entire rally has been driven by earnings rising 14.4%.
Despite the optimism, the picture is not entirely rosy. While Yardeni Research is bullish on markets in the near term, they are also considering nine structural risks that, according to them, are quietly accumulating.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is intended for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or legal advice. The price targets and return projections mentioned — including gold at $10,000 per ounce and the S&P 500 at 10,000 by end-2029 — represent the views and forecasts of Yardeni Research alone, and not those of Financial Express or its editorial team. Investments in gold, equities, or any other asset class carry market risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers are advised to consult a registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions.