The study abroad market is expecting a flat growth in 2026 due to the sharp rupee depreciation over the past six months, and uncertainty in the job market across major markets such UK, Canada and US. The study abroad platforms are estimating over 10-12% increase in the cost of foreign education owing to the sharp rupee decline – nearly 6.5% in six months – and the inflation in the destination countries.
Since a large proportion of the students self-fund their studies, there’s a concern that a further decline in rupee could derail their plans to go abroad. “Students typically make arrangements for a 5-7% cost escalation. But the way rupee has slid, parents are weighing in other options, including postponing or shelving the foreign education plans,” said Karunn Kandoi, founder of Vidysea Education.
What do experts say?
Experts said that the students have started the visa application process for the next admission cycle which begins around August, and their queries are mostly centered around rising costs and the job scenario in Big Four markets.
As per estimates, Big Four markets – US, UK, Canada and Australia – account for over 70% of the student enrolments from India. “The top study abroad destinations are witnessing a conspicuous drop in entry-level job opportunities for international graduates due to the rapid adoption of AI and cost-cutting measures by the key corporate entities.
Markets like UK and Canada are worst hit followed by the US. Australia’s entry-level job market is still showing some buoyancy,” said head of a study abroad platform.
What does UpGrad study abroad report suggest?
According to the upGrad Study Abroad Report, affordability is a key metric influencing the pivotal decision of mobilising abroad as a student. Around 60% of study abroad aspirants earmark a budget of Rs 20 lakh with 34% in the Rs 20 lakh to Rs 30 lakh range, 15% in the Rs 30 & Rs 40 lakh bracket, and finally 11% above a budget of Rs 40 lakh.
“This indicates that the market is no longer limited to affluent households and is increasingly supported by financing and structured planning,” said Praneet Singh, AVP (University Partnerships) at upGrad Study Abroad.
Experts said that the rupee fall is likely to hit the students who are going to fund their studies through loans, especially which are taken from the domestic institutions. At present, about 15% Indian students take loan to study abroad. “If the rupee continues its fall, the loan liability for these set of students will increase because they will borrow in rupees and spend in dollars,” said the platform head quoted above.
Experts said that the ongoing tensions in the West Asia region is making the situation worse because now there’s an additional delay in decision making for the students planning for the upcoming Fall 2026 intake period.
“Students are looking at hybrid pathways which allows them the flexibility to wait and watch and then transfer on campus when the time is right. Some students are deferring intakes and looking at more stable alternate study abroad destinations. Due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, there is increasing interest in alternative destinations such as Germany, France, and Italy, which are seen as offering a balance of affordability and opportunity,” said Singh.
To be sure, Indian students typically begin their preparation 6 to 18 months before the intended intake. Also, the actual application timelines vary by destination. In US, for instance, students typically apply 6 to 12 months in advance, given the structured admission cycles and competitive nature of universities.