Economists forecast – median Up 8.2%

India?s economy grew 8.2% in the quarter ended September, according to median forecasts by 28 economists or entities surveyed this month. Y-o-Y growth slowed from 8.6% a year earlier as the government cut back on social sector spending after the country began a gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimuli measures from early this year, economists said. The growth momentum witnessed in the previous two quarters was maintained, economists said, adding good monsoon rains supported better performance from agriculture sector. According to official sources, growth in the quarter ended September 30 could be higher than expectations of most economists. This week, finance secretary Ashok Chawla estimated Jul-Sep growth at ?very close, pretty close to the first quarter?, which was 8.8%. The provisional estimates for GDP in Jul-Sep, or second quarter of 2010-11, will be detailed on Tuesday by CSO

Key Points Of Forecasts On Jul-Sep GDP

* TickerNews polled economists of 28 banks and financial services firms.

* Year-on-year growth projections– median: 8.2%, average: 8.2%.

* Economists projections range between 7.2% and 8.7% (see table bottom).

* Quarter earlier (Apr-Jun) provisionally up 8.8%; year ago 8.6%.

* India?s GDP expanded 7.4% in 2009-10 (Apr-Mar).

* TickerNews economists poll sees India?s GDP expanding 8.5% this fiscal.

* Reserve Bank of India too expects GDP to grow 8.5% in year to Mar 2011.

GDP growth estimates

* Year-on-year growth, in percent. Achieved versus TickerNews forecasts:

Achieved Forecast/TickerNews Poll

FY08p FY09qe FY10re Q1-FY11 | Q2-FY11f FY11f#

GDP 9.2 6.7 7.4 8.8 | 8.2T 8.5T

Sector GDP Achieved Forecast/PM Economic Council

Agriculture 4.7 1.6 0.2 2.8 | ? 4.5C

Industry 9.5 3.9 9.2 10.3 | ? 9.7C

Services 10.5 7.7 8.8 9.7 | ? 8.9C

Notes: qe=quick estimate; re=revised estimate; p=provisional; f=forecast.

T=Ticker Poll Forecast; C=by Economic Advisory Council to PM.

#–Ticker surveyed 25 economists/entities for the FY11 forecast. Some

economists surveyed for the Q2-FY11 GDP forecast also participated

in the FY11 survey.

Comments of economists and forecasts on GDP growth in Jul-Sep:

RUPA REGE NITSURE, chief economist, Bank of Baroda. (Forecast: 8.6%)

?My GDP estimate for Q2-FY11 is 8.6% with agriculture growing at 4.2%, industry at 10% and services at 9.3% on year-on-year basis. Going forward, the growth is going to ease for industrial and services sectors in view of rising cost pressures across the board and infrastructure constraints.?

MADAN SABNAVIS, chief economist, CARE Ratings. (Forecast: 8.4%)

?Growth appears to be on track with the services sector providing a boost to growth this quarter. Farm sector is also to do well, though it should be recognised this is still the pre-kharif season. Higher industrial growth makes up for the lower growth seen in social and community services, which was triggered by the government in terms of a phased withdrawal from the fiscal stimulus.?

RAMYA SURYANARAYANAN, economist, DBS Bank. (Forecast: 7.2%)

?Low number (forecast) is just a year-on-year distortion as last year output rose sharply in the same quarter. Quarter-on-quarter saar fine at 13% qtr-on-qtr saar, and next quarter?s year-on-year would reflect this as it jumps higher to 9%. Full year (2010-11) GDP growth expected at 8.8%. Upward revision to 2008-09 GDP possible in view of the revision up in IIP data (as a result of the new WPI base being used as the deflator). Overall, (this) means rate hikes have to continue though we expect a pause in December (policy review by RBI).?

M PATTANAYAK, economist, Financial Technologies (Forecast: 8.6%)

?The real economy is likely to expand at 8.6% rate during second quarter of current fiscal (growth in Q2 of FY10 was 8.6% too). However, there would be a major reshuffle in the contribution to the growth. Agriculture is expected to grow at 4.8%, industry at 9% and service sector at 9.2% in Q2 of FY11. Normal monsoon and increased acreage of production may anchor the growth expectations in the agricultural sector along with the lower statistical base. The monthly industrial production data suggest the reversal to trend rate of growth in the industrial sector. However, the nagging economic uncertainly in major advanced countries and movement of rupee may pose some challenge in the growth acceleration. Most of the service sector lead indicators are showing the upbeat moment. The sector is likely to grow at above 9% in the current and subsequent quarters of FY11?

MATT ROBINSON, senior economist, Moody?s Economy.com. (Forecast: 7.8%)

?Strong business investment, rising household consumption and increased public spending are supporting growth. A recovery in agricultural production should buttress (Jul-Sep) GDP, though the year-on-year comparison looks set to ease from the previous quarter.?

Economists/organisations polled and projections for GDP growth rate, in %:

Organisation/Economist Q2-FY11 FY11

1. ANAND RATHI FINANCIAL SERVICES,

Sujan Hajra, chief economist 7.3 7.2

2. AXIS BANK, Rituparna Banerjee/economist 8.5 8.7

3. BANK OF AMERICA-MERRILL LYNCH

Indranil Sengupta, India economist 8.2 n.a.

4. BANK OF BARODA, Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist 8.6 8.5

5. CARE RATINGS, Madan Sabnavis, chief economist 8.4 8.5

6. CITIGROUP, Rohini Malkani, economist 8.6 8.4

7. CMIE 8.7 9.2

8. CREDIT SUISSE INVESTMENT BANK, Robert Prior-

Wandesforde,head of India and South East Asia Economics 7.5 8.4

9. CRISIL, D.K. Joshi, chief economist 8.4 8.2

10. DBS BANK, Ramya Suryanarayanan, economist 7.2 8.8

11. DUN & BRADSTREET INFO. SERVICES,

Arun Singh, sr economist 8.5 8.5

12. ENAM SECURITIES, Sachchidanand Shukla, economist 8.6 8.5

13. FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES, Manoranjan Pattanayak 8.6 8.6

14. HDFC BANK, Jyotinder Kaur, economist 8.2 n.a.

15. HSBC GLOBAL RESEARCH, Leif Eskesen,

chief India economist 8.2 8.8

16. ICRA, Aditi Nayar, economist 8.2 n.a.

17. INDICUS ANALYTICS, Sumita Kale, chief economist 8.2 8.4

18. ING VYSYA BANK, Deepali Bhargava, economist 8.1 8.4

19. KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK, Indranil Pan/chief economist 8.2 8.4

20. MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA, Veena Mishra, economist 8.5 8.6

21. MF GLOBAL INDIA, Anjali Verma, economist 8.2 n.a.

22. Moody?s Economy.com, Matt Robinson, senior economist 7.8 8.3

23. NOMURA FIN. ADVISORY & SEC.

Sonal Varma, India economist 7.8 8.3

24. FORECASTERS SURVEY BY RBI 8.3 8.5

25. RELIGARE CAPITAL MARKETS,

Jay Shankar, chief economist 8.0 n.a.

26. STANDARD CHARTERED BANK,

Anubhuti Sahay, economist 8.3 n.a.

27. STCI-PD, Meghna Patel, economist 8.3 n.a.

28. YES BANK, Shubhada Rao, chief economist