The monsoon may hit the coast of Kerala state by May 30, two days ahead of previous expectations, the Indian Meteorological Department said on Tuesday giving further relief to a heavily agri-dependent economy, after earlier forecasting that India would receive more rainfall this year than it did the last year. The monsoon winds are expected to hit the coast of the southern state two days ahead of the schedule, Reuters reported citing an unidentified source in the department.
Earlier last week, the met office had said that India is due to receive a ‘normal’ monsoon and more rainfall this year than the previous year, as the concerns over the El Nino weather condition has eased.
Today, a met official told ET Now that the monsoon rains this year will be at 96% of the long-period average, reiterating the department’s forecast made in April. The official also told the TV news channel that the monsoon will advance in the Andaman Sea in the next 48 hours.
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Indian Meteorological Department defines 96%-104% rains of the long-period average as ‘normal’, that below 96% as ‘below normal’, and below 90% as ‘deficient’.
The met department expects the El Nino conditions to remain neutral during monsoon season, and weaken during the second half of monsoon, the official said to ET Now. The met department will update its forecast by the first week of June, he added.
Last month, however, Weather Risk, a private weather forecasting agency, had predicted an El Nino event- a phenomenon associated with warming of Pacific waters- this year, which may result in a negative impact on the south-west monsoon during the later part of the monsoon period. Skymet, another private forecasting agency, had also predicted that the monsoon will be slightly below normal this year with El Nino being regarded as the key reason behind a weak monsoon forecast.