Every year, India adds more power plants to its grid than most countries built in a decade. But who is actually doing the building has been changing quietly. Government-run companies, once the backbone of the sector, are no longer the ones leading capacity additions. Private players have taken over that role, especially in renewable energy.
In a latest report by the global brokerage house Jefferies, it noted that the private players could account for 63% of India’s incremental power capacity additions between FY26 -FY30, with renewable energy driving much of the expansion.
Let’s take a look at what the brokerage house is saying –
Jefferies’ power stock targets
| Company | Rating | Target Price | Upside |
| JSW Energy | Buy | Rs 720 | 31% |
| Adani Energy Solutions | Buy | Rs 2,060 | 34% |
| Adani Power | Buy | Rs 270 | 33% |
| Adani Green Energy | Buy | Rs 1,695 | 29% |
| NTPC | Buy | Rs 425 | 25% |
| Power Grid | Buy | Rs 315 | 16% |
| Torrent Power | Buy | Rs 1,780 | 43% |
| Tata Power | Unrated | Rs 335 | -11% |
| Indian Energy Exchange | Unrated | Rs 108 | -13% |
Private players could take the lead
Jefferies added in its report that private companies could account for 63% of India’s incremental power capacity additions between FY26-FY30.
Jefferies expects electricity demand to grow at around 6% annually during this period, while private-sector generation could expand at 9% annually.
“We believe the private sector will see higher earnings CAGR vs PSUs in the next decade,” the brokerage said.
The larger trend is renewable energy. Jefferies estimates India’s installed power capacity could increase 1.4 times to 724 gigawatts (GW) by FY30, compared with FY26.
Of the expected 191 GW addition, renewable energy could make up 76%, followed by thermal power at 18% and hydropower at 6%.
Renewable energy changes the power equation
Private companies are expected to dominate renewable additions. Jefferies estimates they could account for 72% of incremental renewable capacity.
The brokerage also expects private players to contribute half of the new thermal capacity.
Interestingly, this does not mean government companies will suddenly become irrelevant. Their large existing asset base means the public sector undertaking share of total installed capacity is expected to decline only moderately, from 48% in FY26 to 45% by FY30.
“80%+ of RE generation should come from the private sector,” Jefferies said. The brokerage expects Adani Green Energy to account for 17% of incremental renewable capacity, while Adani Power could contribute 34% of the incremental thermal capacity.
Earnings growth is another key attraction
Jefferies expects private-sector companies in its coverage universe, excluding Tata Power, to deliver 13-30% EBITDA CAGR between FY26-FY30. This could translate into a 10-46% profit after tax CAGR, compared with 7-8% expected for NTPC and Power Grid.
“Private sector to see double-digit earnings CAGR over FY26-30E vs single digit in PSUs,” the brokerage said.
JSW Energy, Adani Energy top picks
JSW Energy stands out for its aggressive capacity expansion. Jefferies expects its capacity to rise from 13.5 GW to 24.7 GW by FY30.
“JSW Energy – 17% FY26-30E EBITDA CAGR on execution uptick,” the brokerage said.
Adani Energy Solutions is another key pick. Jefferies expects its earnings to grow at a 21% CAGR through FY30. “Adani Energy Solutions – locked-in for double-digit medium-term growth,” the report said.
What investors need to watch
India’s power expansion is no longer only a government story. Renewable energy is opening a larger runway for private companies, with JSW Energy and Adani Energy Solutions emerging as the brokerage’s preferred names.
Disclaimer: This article is based on research reports from one or more brokerage firms and is for informational purposes only. The views, target prices, and recommendations expressed are those of the respective brokerage firms and do not reflect the official policy or position of Financial Express. This should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investors must conduct their own independent due diligence and seek advice from a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions.