Pine Labs share price is in focus as global brokerage firm Jefferies initiated coverage on the company with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 300, implying an upside potential of 28%. Jefferies estimates that non-cash payments may drop to just 20% by FY30 from 55% in FY25, and as a result, Pine Labs is seen as a key beneficiary.
Jefferies on Indian digital payment market
The Indian digital payment funnel is expanding at a breakneck pace. In just five years, the number of merchants accepting digital payments has jumped from 4.5 crore to 6.3 crore, with total payments to merchants rising fourfold to Rs 1.17 lakh crore. While the retail focus has stayed on UPI, a quieter transformation is playing out at the storefront, as per the report.
5 reasons Jefferies initiated a ‘Buy’ on Pine Labs
#1The Massive Profit Pivot: From Rs 150 crore loss to Rs 700 crore gain
The most striking insight from the Jefferies report is the projected earnings ramp-up. While the company is expected to post a net loss of Rs 150 crore in FY25, a combination of 23% revenue CAGR and operating efficiency is expected to swing the bottom line to a Rs 700 crore profit by FY28. Jefferies expects adjusted EBITDA margins to expand from 15% to 27% over the same period.
#2 Jefferies sees Pine Labs dominating the ‘affordability’ moat
Unlike competitors focused mainly on high-frequency, low-margin transactions, Jefferies points out that Pine Labs controls 90–95% share in EMI on credit cards at physical stores. As India’s middle class increasingly purchases electronics and lifestyle goods on credit, this affordability segment is expected to grow at a 30% CAGR, creating a strong entry barrier for rivals.
#3 The end of the QR era? Jefferies on the rise of digital checkout points
While QR codes played a key role in early digitisation, Jefferies observes that merchants are now upgrading to Digital Checkout Points to offer loans, reward points, and gift cards at checkout. The brokerage projects India’s DCP network to grow at a 16% CAGR, reaching 2.3 crore units by FY30. Pine Labs already controls 20–22% of this market by transaction value, positioning it as a major beneficiary of this transition.
#4. Global footprint: Waymo and Amazon connection
This is no longer just an India-focused story. Jefferies notes that Pine Labs is scaling across Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the US. The company recently went live in the US with Waymo, Google’s driverless car subsidiary, for prepaid card processing. Jefferies also highlights Pine Labs’ 70–75% market share in the prepaid card space and its deep partnership with Amazon in India for gift card processing, which offers a pathway to global expansion.
#5Pine Labs offers a valuation discount versus Paytm and PB Fintech
From a valuation perspective, Jefferies notes that Pine Labs trades at 33x FY27 estimated adjusted EV/EBITDA, which is at a discount to listed peers such as PB Fintech at 67x and Paytm at 51x. Jefferies expects this gap to narrow as Pine Labs delivers consistent growth and demonstrates its path to an estimated annual profit of Rs 700 crore by FY28.
Jefferies compares this transition to the move from basic feature phones to smartphones. Just as smartphones enabled an entire ecosystem beyond calling, Digital Checkout Points are turning simple payment counters into multi-purpose hubs for credit, loyalty, and commerce, gradually pushing basic QR codes into the background.