The recent IPO wave in the past two months has brought in some intereting times for the market. The 1-month lock-in period for several key IPOs are set to expire in the next fe weeks with over Rs 2 lakh crore of value unlock opportunity. This includes marquee names like NSDL, HDB, Groww, Urban Company and many other recent listings. How wll this be absorbed by the mrket? Leading brokerage house Nuvama explains the implications.
Orkla India’s lock-in period ended on December 3, releasing its pre-IPO shares into the tradeable pool and setting off the first link in a long chain of unlock events. According to Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research, this is only the opening act of a crowded schedule in which 106 companies will see their pre-listing restrictions end between December 3, 2025 and March 30, 2026. Together, these expiries involve shares worth Rs 2.19 lakh crore becoming eligible for trade.
Nuvama on Liquidity: The anatomy of the Rs 2.19 lakh crore overhang
Nuvama noted that many of these shares belong to promoter and group entities and may not appear in the market immediately. Even so, eligibility alone often affects market behaviour because participants expect more supply once a lock-in ends. This expectation tends to influence trading well ahead of key dates, and December has already started showing the early signs of this pattern, the report added.
The core issue here is not just the list of companies, but the sheer quantum of equity that suddenly gains market access. Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research stresses that while the full amount of Rs 2.19 lakh crore may not be sold as a sizable portion is held by Promoters and Groups who often hold for the long term, the availability itself creates an overhang. This overhang acts as a natural ceiling on stock price appreciation. Anytime the stock moves up, there is a ready pool of pre-IPO investors waiting to liquidate their positions.
The brokerage pointed out that this wave affects companies listed up until November 30, 2025.
Nuvama on IPO lock-in expiry: Financial giants and B2C names face extreme pressure
Retail and High Net Worth Individual (HNI) investors must closely track the expiry dates of recognisable financial services and consumer-facing technology companies, as per the brokerage’s advice, because of the disproportionate percentage of their total equity capital that is set to unlock.
The most extreme example cited by Nuvama’s research is NSDL. On February 5, 2026, a staggering 149 million shares will become eligible for sale. This represents 75% of the total outstanding shares of the key financial institution. In other words, three-quarters of the entire company’s equity structure, which was previously locked, is about to flood the trading floor on a single day. This unlocking can trigger significant price discovery and volatility.
Urban Company, the popular consumer tech brand, faces a similar, though slightly later, event. Nuvama’s data showed that on March 17, 2026, 941 million shares are scheduled to unlock, representing 66% of its total outstanding shares. A large portion of this supply follows a smaller tranche that opened in December. For a consumer-facing stock popular with retail investors, this figure, nearly two-thirds of all shares, represents an extreme supply pressure risk that demands immediate attention.
Similarly, HDB Financial Services will see 481.5 million shares, or 58% of its equity, are expected to be unlocked on January 2, 2026. The sheer size of the company means this event will be a major flashpoint for the entire financial sector and its retail holders. Travel Food Services will see 87 million shares (66% of its equity) unlock on January 12. Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, another key financial market entity, faces the unlocking of 32 million shares, which is 50% of its total outstanding equity, right at the end of the period on March 30, 2026, the report added.
Nuvama on IPO lock-in expiry: Profit-taking versus panic exits
The likely impact of the lock-in expiry is directly linked to the current performance of the stock relative to its issue price, according to Nuvama’s data collected as of December 1, 2025.
Stocks showing robust post-listing gains are ripe for profit booking. Billionbrains Garage Ventures (Groww) is up 57% from its issue price. When 149.2 million shares (2% of the outstanding) will unlock on December 10, the incentive for early investors to realise gains is immense. Urban Company, trading 31% higher than its issue price, presents another attractive exit window, particularly during the March supply surge. Physicswallah, with a gain of 24% from its issue price, will also likely see profit booking when its lock-ins open.
Conversely, companies trading significantly below their issue price might experience a different kind of pressure. Amanta Healthcare, which is trading 15% below its issue price, saw 2 million shares unlock on December 3. This situation leaves early investors underwater, potentially leading to a slow bleed if they decide to cut their losses, or prolonged stagnation if they choose to hold on. Orkla India, down 13% from its issue price, is in a similar fix. Prostarm Info Systems, despite seeing a 69% gain since its listing day close, is trading 20% above its issue price and faces the unlocking of 53% of its shares on December 5. The high volatility noted in its performance metrics suggests a highly unpredictable trajectory.
Staggered expiries: A double test for retail
Volatility will also be sustained by staggered lock-in expiry dates in several popular names. Retail investors must closely manage this calendar, the report added.
Lenskart Solutions has two lock-in events scheduled in the Nuvama report. The first, 40.7 million shares (2% of the outstanding), will open on December 8, 2025, and another 41 million shares (2%) follow on February 4, 2026. Physicswallah faces a similar rhythm: 71.7 million shares (3%) on December 15, 2025, and another wave of 72 million shares (3%) on February 12, 2026. The multiple small supply injections prevent the stock from settling down for months. Tata Capital will see 71 million shares (2% of outstanding) unlock on January 7, 2026.
Nuvama on what the lock-in expiry wave means for investors
Nuvama’s report outlines concerns for retail investors. Stocks linked to major unlocks often weaken before the expiry date because traders expect additional supply. In cases where companies have staggered unlocks, the period of adjustment can stretch for months. Liquidity gaps may widen when both sellers and buyers wait for more certainty, producing sharper intraday movement and uneven order books.
Although promoters may not sell large quantities immediately, the possibility of supply is enough to influence trading. Market behaviour often responds to what could happen rather than waiting for confirmation, especially when expiry dates pile up within a tight window.