Xi & China become synonymous

The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is poised to reaffirm president Xi Jinping as the undisputed leader of the People’s Republic of China. President Xi’s address at the Congress confirmed China’s commitment to some specific national goals. As the Congress moves on and the election of the Politburo members begins, there is little doubt about Xi extending and entrenching his control over the CCP and the country. His vision underscores and outlines the various goals that the CCP will follow in the days to come.

The five-year National Congress events of the CCP are noted for unveiling the CCP leadership that would be at helm for the next five years. Apart from being the president of PRC, Xi is also the general secretary of the CCP. He is well set to commence a third term. This, again, would be unprecedented, as the CCP leaderships get to have a maximum of two terms lasting for ten years.

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Once Xi moves into his third term as CCP general secretary, there will be interest in knowing the composition of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CCP. This small committee within the Politburo is the most powerful decision-making body of China. Among interest over the members of the Committee, a lot of curiosity will be over whether the current prime minister Li Keqiang—arguably, the topmost economic manager and policymaker of the country—gets another term or not.

In the run-up to the Congress, there was speculation over the CCP withdrawing from its stringent ‘zero Covid’ policy. Notwithstanding the official endorsement of the policy, there is little doubt that harsh management of Covid has hurt the Chinese economy. Ruthless and sweeping lockdowns, imposed at the shortest notice, have jeopardised production and economic activity. The IMF’s latest projections predict a growth of 3.2% for the Chinese economy in 2022. This would be one of China’s weakest growth performances since the opening up of its economy in 1978.

The low Chinese growth is one of the major drivers of the global downturn in the current year that is apprehended to grow into a full-blown economic recession in 2023.

It is interesting that in 2021, China grew by 8.1%, reflecting a strong recovery from the initial setback inflicted by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. The fact that the Chinese economy is expected to grow by a much lower rate in 2022, notwithstanding a visible decline in the intensity of the pandemic and return of the world to pre-pandemic operational levels, suggests China getting hampered by its own policies. These include abrupt stringent lockdowns at the slightest hint of Covid infections. The closures have affected the Chinese economy badly. The effect has been compounded by China’s reluctance to resume normal commercial flight operations and back and forth movements of people.

In his speech at the National Congress, Xi did not express any misgivings over the ‘zero Covid’ policy. Indeed, as the Congress entered its second day, the latest lockdown affecting nearly a million people was announced at the iPhone manufacturing hub of Zhengzhou. Xi and the other Chinese authorities are convinced about the ‘benefits’ being delivered by the zero-Covid policy notwithstanding its economic costs.

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Xi’s speech was also noted for the unambiguous position of China on Taiwan. The run-up to the 20th Congress was marked by unusual international attention on Taiwan. The latter has become an active flashpoint in the US-China relationship fraught by tension and mistrust. Taiwan has demonstrated its unwillingness to relent to Chinese aggressive tactics and is connecting closely to the US and other allies for taking on the CCP. This, however, has not in any way refrained China from persisting with its ‘One China’ policy.

Xi’s affirmation in this respect, however, was not surprising. A non-compromising posture on Taiwan is among his most important means for ‘connecting’ to the domestic constituency. Very few issues resonate among the local Chinese the way Taiwan does. Xi is fully aware of the nationalist political appeal of Taiwan and would continue to harp hard on the issue for consolidating his legitimacy. A part of the resolve in this regard that he aimed to convey to his people was the commitment to bolstering defence expenditure and military preparedness.

The efforts to increase birth rates in China, which have fallen to an all-time low after three decades of strict implementation of the one-child policy, point to the concerns that Xi and the CCP have in this regard. With the population growth rate having slipped below replacement level, an absolute decline in Chinese population is on the cards. Like in the West and parts of Asia, where industrially mature economies have been facing similar declines and are worrying over labour and human resource shortages, China is facing an identical demographic predicament.

By what extent, the CCP will pursue policies to address this challenge will be an important point of interest in president Xi’s third term.

The latest Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will be remembered for institutionalising a new phase of unilateral individual control in China. What that will mean for the world’s most populous and second-largest economy will be revealed over time.

What is clear though is that Xi will need more than just ‘control’ to deliver on his social contract with the Chinese people: an assurance of better living standards and quality of life in return for his unchallenged continuation. All, said, the going might have just got tougher for him.

(The author is a Senior research fellow and research lead (trade and economics), Institute of South Asian Studies, NUS. Views are personal)