MSIL’s December-16 wholesales were below estimated at ~117,908 units (v/s estimated 123,960 units), 1% y-o-y decline (-13% m-o-m). Our FY17 estimates indicate a 10% growth implying a 15.5% residual growth rate or ~128.2k/month of run rate.
The compact segment too declined by 9% y-o-y. Waiting period of Baleno restricted further fall of the compact segment. UVs continued their momentum, with a 75% y-o-y growth, primarily aided by incremental volumes of Vitarra Brezza, which enjoys a waiting period of 6-7 months. Incremental volumes of Brezza, Baleno supported by robust growth in the mid size segment (Ciaz) partially insulated the impact of demonetisation on MSIL’s December 2016 volumes. Export volumes surprised with a 47% y-o-y growth to 11,494 units (v/s estimated 10,500 units) led by robust sales of Baleno to Japan and Europe.